TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf39e…e7c7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
151
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Tweets at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST7764.9%50 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 77 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hornets vs. Raptorsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+108.2%+$324.74
Spurs vs. Cavaliersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Lakers vs. Celticsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Lakers vs. Raptorsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+75.4%+$226.32
Jazz vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Heat vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,680Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+26.7%+$716.22
Nets vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Grizzlies vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+48.2%+$288.94
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Trail Blazers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+81.8%+$245.45
Rockets vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+270.4%+$32.44
Hornets vs. Netsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Bulls vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+122.3%+$366.89
Grizzlies vs. Kingsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,633Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+85.2%+$1,391.6
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$900
Mavericks vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+45.7%+$274.16
Pelicans vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+26.6%+$79.75
Pistons vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Bulls vs. Pacersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Raptors vs. Hornetsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Grizzlies vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Kings vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+78.6%+$235.71
Bucks vs. Knicksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$112.19
Showing 25 of 77 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT2352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Portugal vs. Croatia: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Portugal vs. Croatia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.61
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$59.79
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+86%+$86.05
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$318.18
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$273.95
Will France win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$126.92
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$230.77
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$449.28
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$388.89
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,000
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$235.29
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,440Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+70.8%+$2,434.41
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$492.54
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$352.38
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$639.34
All 23 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-48.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-58.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Islanders vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Stars vs. Senators: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$102.4
Stars vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$126
Red Wings vs. Sharksbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+67.1%+$67.08
All 4 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Sep 6, 2024, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chiefs vs. Cowboysbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$1,000
Packers vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Lions vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+51.5%+$154.55
All 3 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Olympics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 10, 2024, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2024, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+254.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2024, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+192.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran military response by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,569Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2024, EDT+29.6%+$463.75
Iran military response by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2024, EDT+355.8%+$711.66
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,680Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+168.7%+$2,833.5
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Sep 8, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT+96.6%+$193.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Central Córdoba vs. Racing Club end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$854Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+66.2%+$565.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.