Tweets · resolved market
Trump posts 40 or more times on X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56525359f454b7af8aad49a2d09d185440adbbcdb263d9bad5c220ce6ab9491d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 58c | 6,491$3,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,732.69 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 57c | 5,627$3,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,223.58 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 33c | 5,276$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 52c | 4,741$2,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,283.75 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 44c | 3,345$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.14 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes | 64c | 3,238$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061.32 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf675…b56dbacked No | 51c | 2,491$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 58c | 2,451$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.38 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…17fbbacked Yes | 33c | 2,383$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 53c | 2,004$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.42 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 45c | 1,943$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.64 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed No | 40c | 1,577$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.84 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 48c | 1,548$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,350$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.09 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…c0f8backed No | 74c | 1,318$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…cd1cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,317$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 56c | 1,077$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.35 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,074$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.57 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1785…b782backed Yes | 59c | 1,027$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…5c65backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 10c | 891.91$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed Yes | 29c | 783$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.07 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 34c | 775$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39e…e7c7backed Yes | 69c | 767.09$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 59c | 730$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.3 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…2e1cbacked Yes | 23c | 719$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 572.27$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.98 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 72c | 526.5$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.3 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab99…7ac1backed Yes | 26c | 487.61$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 23c | 421$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ab…37e6backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 39c | 399.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.99 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 18c | 374.62$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88d…2d3fbacked Yes | 69c | 359.96$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked No | 64c | 354.81$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.48 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed No | 44c | 350.17$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.71 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…dad2backed No | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 58c | 288.23$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…7680backed No | 79c | 284.13$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 70c | 273.62$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +207.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 37c | 268.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.45 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…d58cbacked Yes | 61c | 259.6$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…7f71backed Yes | 31c | 237.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 76c | 237.02$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 67c | 237.02$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.57 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 37c | 237$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed No | 33c | 222$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…7538backed Yes | 49c | 217.19$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffbe…8139backed Yes | 77c | 205.45$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.17 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…eb1abacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…e2bdbacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed No | 33c | 194$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed No | 38c | 179.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.57 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…e38abacked Yes | 22c | 173.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 33c | 169.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 55c | 166.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 50c | 154.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +165%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed No | 67c | 136$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +174.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9059…a4fabacked No | 60c | 132.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 41c | 111$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a51…8e2fbacked Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…68ebbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…adfdbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 25c | 97.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed No | 34c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed No | 26c | 89.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…37adbacked No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe16e…e2b9backed No | 47c | 71.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…b3febacked No | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2469…41a1backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 77c | 55.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed Yes | 51c | 51.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…ee3dbacked No | 40c | 50.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b52…47ccbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf714…8ff4backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3c…2099backed Yes | 39c | 48.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e2…0fa1backed No | 67c | 46.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…ed6fbacked No | 24c | 45.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc8…a401backed Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 75c | 41.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…ffcbbacked Yes | 35c | 40.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b36…acebbacked Yes | 53c | 39.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 74c | 39.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…cd61backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x003e…840ebacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 68c | 36.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…acb3backed No | 34c | 33.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…de09backed No | 75c | 32.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…6788backed Yes | 62c | 32.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7719…2deebacked No | 50c | 31.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x096d…e340backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7777…f2bbbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 61c | 25.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…5b1ebacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump posts 40 or more times on X?this page
- Trump posts 10-14 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 15-19 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 20-24 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 25-29 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 30-34 times on X?Yes won
- Trump posts 35-39 times on X?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.