TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Trump posts 40 or more times on X?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,899
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,456

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,899 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96b5…f5e7backed No58c6,491$3,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,732.697129.6%21 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes57c5,627$3,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,223.582123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes33c5,276$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,73626112.6%33 W · 228 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00a9…36bbbacked No52c4,741$2,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,283.753429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes44c3,345$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.142814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes64c3,238$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.321315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-76.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf675…b56dbacked No51c2,491$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98cb…bd72backed Yes58c2,451$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.382524%6 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74b8…17fbbacked Yes33c2,383$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No53c2,004$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.4215313.1%20 W · 133 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70de…db94backed No45c1,943$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.6410527.6%29 W · 76 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x685e…bb41backed No40c1,577$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.845521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes48c1,548$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7406440.6%26 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid+83.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes39c1,350$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.092729.6%8 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+66.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d73…c0f8backed No74c1,318$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+53.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a51…cd1cbacked Yes42c1,317$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.59633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No56c1,077$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.357545.3%34 W · 41 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+54.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes27c1,074$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.579225%23 W · 69 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1785…b782backed Yes59c1,027$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.11633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…5c65backed Yes33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes10c891.91$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.859315.1%14 W · 79 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a38…67a9backed Yes29c783$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.073836.8%14 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No34c775$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.51747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf39e…e7c7backed Yes69c767.09$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.9940%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed No59c730$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.32832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2651…2e1cbacked Yes23c719$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.03728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c572.27$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9879735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No72c526.5$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.35623.2%13 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab99…7ac1backed Yes26c487.61$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.78147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-86%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes23c421$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1512814.1%18 W · 110 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ab…37e6backed Yes50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No39c399.99$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.9975122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes18c374.62$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.542524%6 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe88d…2d3fbacked Yes69c359.96$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05fe…764fbacked No64c354.81$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.482544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x719d…4e73backed No44c350.17$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.711838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8189…dad2backed No67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed No58c288.23$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.765623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e90…7680backed No79c284.13$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.57560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes70c273.62$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.68933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+207.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1820…e3f7backed No37c268.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.454841.7%20 W · 28 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x429a…d58cbacked Yes61c259.6$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.93728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52c9…7f71backed Yes31c237.84$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.73425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcede…f2f6backed Yes76c237.02$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes67c237.02$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5765311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes37c237$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.181118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-64.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed No33c222$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e51…7538backed Yes49c217.19$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffbe…8139backed Yes77c205.45$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.17119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce00…eb1abacked Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee20…e2bdbacked No65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+236.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdfa…d143backed No33c194$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.981127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bba…9b86backed No38c179.2$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.571612.5%2 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-47.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3c5…e38abacked Yes22c173.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes33c169.69$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Yes55c166.5$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.193119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes50c154.06$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.921936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+165%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes54c150$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8126224%63 W · 199 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x535f…5ce5backed No67c136$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.88742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+174.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9059…a4fabacked No60c132.65$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.06333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9193…c86cbacked Yes41c111$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.51219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a51…8e2fbacked Yes39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd600…68ebbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf970…adfdbacked No23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes25c97.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.35529.6%5 W · 47 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-56%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fdd…0b07backed No34c90$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.62420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd941…a1d0backed No26c89.22$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.34822.9%11 W · 37 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f0…37adbacked No23c86.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16e…e2b9backed No47c71.65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b79…b3febacked No45c66.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.671662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2469…41a1backed Yes43c58.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed Yes77c55.73$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.94944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051f…66b0backed Yes51c51.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.08520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-65.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5db…ee3dbacked No40c50.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.28560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+83.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba3f…8b64backed No79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.54134.1%14 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12e1…51f6backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.27512%9 W · 66 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b52…47ccbacked Yes65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.51127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+60%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf714…8ff4backed Yes32c49.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No40c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.832138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f3c…2099backed Yes39c48.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8e2…0fa1backed No67c46.24$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.26540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9339…ed6fbacked No24c45.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bc8…a401backed Yes68c44.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed No75c41.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.433438.2%13 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc47f…ffcbbacked Yes35c40.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-35.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4b36…acebbacked Yes53c39.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9376…1655backed Yes74c39.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9715717.8%28 W · 129 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd4d…cd61backed Yes39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x003e…840ebacked Yes40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes68c36.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.811030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+134.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c5…acb3backed No34c33.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…de09backed No75c32.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…6788backed Yes62c32.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7719…2deebacked No50c31.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x096d…e340backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7777…f2bbbacked No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c4…aad3backed Yes61c25.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.566127.9%17 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc75f…5b1ebacked No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.