Tweets · resolved market
Trump posts 35-39 times on X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1eceeb7dafa564d1e8559765250d676bb96be5be670af942ec687faaa269233
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes | 26c | 2,226$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.44 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 75c | 2,161$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +207.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,922$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,074$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.22 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed No | 78c | 1,068$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.87 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 24c | 985.76$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.03 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffbe…8139backed Yes | 22c | 820$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 34c | 608.29$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 5c | 584.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 28c | 544.63$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.89 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 19c | 525.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9059…a4fabacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…c0f8backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…cd1cbacked Yes | 24c | 420$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 17c | 388.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +165%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 26c | 380.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 11c | 350$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 7c | 318.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bb…5ebdbacked Yes | 18c | 275.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 17c | 250$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 77c | 249.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 7c | 225.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 22c | 199.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 15c | 167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…3687backed Yes | 23c | 153.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 65c | 151.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked Yes | 7c | 145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…1180backed Yes | 15c | 120.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed No | 76c | 115.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…89b9backed Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x636b…1c55backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…b4c3backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…fb64backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 63.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ad…316ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Yes | 32c | 48.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Yes | 33c | 30.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…bcf7backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 78c | 17.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump posts 35-39 times on X?this page
- Trump posts 10-14 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 15-19 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 20-24 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 25-29 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 30-34 times on X?Yes won
- Trump posts 40 or more times on X?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.