Tweets · resolved market
Trump posts 25-29 times on X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb082a58168828ff769ca059c008e2971ad993c0a3c4ac82876d53022ead1b09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,162$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 4c | 5,581$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.13 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 1c | 5,323$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9059…a4fabacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ab…37e6backed Yes | 3c | 1,840$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…2e1cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,669$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 1c | 1,596$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,357$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes | 1c | 1,113$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffbe…8139backed Yes | 14c | 1,073$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,069$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,022$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 8c | 978$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…cd1cbacked Yes | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d8…7807backed Yes | 3c | 702.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 9c | 460.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…d58cbacked Yes | 5c | 323.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…89b9backed Yes | 7c | 290$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 6c | 217.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +165%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 6c | 191.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 15c | 152$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Yes | 12c | 117.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 12c | 106.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b36…acebbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump posts 25-29 times on X?this page
- Trump posts 10-14 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 15-19 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 20-24 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 30-34 times on X?Yes won
- Trump posts 35-39 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 40 or more times on X?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.