TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Mavericks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Heat, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,489,638
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,075,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,489,638 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,441 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4259…936fbacked Mavericks64c517,894$333,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184,242.468333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Heat36c122,529$44,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,110.4420253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Heat35c100,000$35,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,00059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Heat28c74,988$21,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,298.538248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Heat17c63,825$11,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,13521944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Heat35c57,387$20,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,359.3259646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Heat29c46,441$13,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,582.81,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Heat63c40,009$25,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,205.4337557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Mavericks37c34,666$12,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,839.761,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks74c30,932$22,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,042.925,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Mavericks36c30,755$10,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,820.7696447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heat31c30,222$9,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,370.661,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat36c30,160$10,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,857.61,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Heat34c30,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,20010837%40 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Heat42c28,588$11,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,925.2526038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Heat36c28,455$10,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,243.8166853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Heat28c26,666$7,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,333.1527251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Mavericks37c25,200$9,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,875.9727747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Mavericks37c25,000$9,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,749.8835235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea34…0a92backed Mavericks36c23,446$8,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,921.346654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed Mavericks43c22,712$9,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,983.053534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Heat20c18,710$3,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,813.187731.2%24 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Mavericks40c16,026$6,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,655.697259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Heat63c15,192$9,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,533.732,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat64c14,378$9,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,140.454,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Heat63c14,020$8,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,827.6869852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Mavericks37c12,038$4,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,583.9447751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Heat64c11,688$7,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,480.242,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Heat28c11,610$3,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,305.0627917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Heat51c11,554$5,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,948.0578445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc16b…8404backed Mavericks38c11,009$4,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,825.51822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-44.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Heat24c10,511$2,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.951,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Mavericks34c10,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,60039349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Heat10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Heat64c9,805$6,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,273.142,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Mavericks53c9,409$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,409.138649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Mavericks37c9,000$3,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,669.9917354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x847b…e10ebacked Heat61c8,803$5,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,37010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb0…7157backed Mavericks39c8,791$3,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,362.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03a9…37babacked Mavericks38c8,624$3,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,348.9610547.6%50 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Mavericks38c7,895$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,894.749838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865a…f1ecbacked Mavericks38c7,847$2,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,865.213354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Mavericks38c7,400$2,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,588.3235547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Mavericks73c7,349$5,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.7844654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0b…9f41backed Mavericks79c7,291$5,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.171172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79aa…92cbbacked Heat63c7,000$4,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,410955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+63.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Mavericks36c6,556$2,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,175.5631044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Heat36c6,531$2,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35119136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Mavericks36c6,255$2,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,000.182,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Heat62c6,091$3,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,776.6326753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1a…1b70backed Heat17c6,035$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+50.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc668…b6d8backed Heat62c5,500$3,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,409.961752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Heat37c5,420$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e90…8525backed Mavericks39c5,140$1,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,152.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe88e…a7d4backed Heat22c4,586$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9962321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a60…3170backed Mavericks38c4,544$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,817.312646%58 W · 68 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed Mavericks61c4,173$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.2615547.1%73 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Mavericks41c4,124$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,436.725,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Heat15c4,002$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6018863.6%56 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Mavericks37c4,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,52082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Heat63c4,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5201,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Mavericks37c4,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,52066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0537…13b6backed Mavericks38c4,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4802462.5%15 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+68.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Heat64c4,000$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.9922053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc046…cf3abacked Heat63c3,968$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b0…46a6backed Heat64c3,910$2,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.5740%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Mavericks77c3,902$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.787353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a64…8c1bbacked Mavericks37c3,890$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,431.691442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Heat42c3,888$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.0641954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Heat62c3,778$2,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.9834062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed Heat63c3,502$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,206.273345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ee…3d48backed Heat29c3,448$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.921741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf39e…e7c7backed Mavericks79c3,396$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.227764.9%50 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eac…ce0abacked Mavericks36c3,241$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,072.97560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+58.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9eea…2625backed Heat15c3,106$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.678337.3%31 W · 52 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51e1…c98abacked Mavericks38c3,086$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,908.446653%35 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Mavericks38c3,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,86043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6f…2e89backed Mavericks79c3,000$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6302429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-56.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Heat63c2,994$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.9755346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Mavericks43c2,822$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.0185344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Heat35c2,700$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94558951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Heat36c2,644$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.9259140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Heat64c2,637$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.8344459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb322…2179backed Mavericks38c2,629$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.954040%16 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Heat1c2,560$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.28820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Mavericks57c2,515$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.991,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95d4…c38cbacked Mavericks73c2,500$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.49850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Mavericks74c2,443$1,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.362546.9%293 W · 332 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe831…a42abacked Mavericks37c2,372$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.3918349.2%90 W · 93 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed Heat52c2,320$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.395657.1%32 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Heat69c2,317$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.9947856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff51…83e3backed Mavericks37c2,300$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+87.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat62c2,233$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.411,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ba…8a09backed Mavericks38c2,130$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.64223.8%10 W · 32 L-8.2wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-48.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Heat64c2,100$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33691050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Heat72c2,079$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50027152%141 W · 130 L-17.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Mavericks37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Mavericks35c2,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30011649.1%57 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed Heat16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32020746.4%96 W · 111 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Heat1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.