NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b25cf75cc97e78aa99b4c4aaa1ca57412701f0a36af6b6198f3744e298856b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Heat, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Heat | 48c | 3,333$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.84 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Mavericks | 52c | 2,692$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.95 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 45c | 2,660$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…d8febacked Mavericks | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…9120backed Heat | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Mavericks | 55c | 1,802$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.45 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Mavericks | 53c | 1,600$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Heat | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat | 45c | 945.16$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.24 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Mavericks | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Mavericks | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…1dc4backed Mavericks | 53c | 350.6$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.09 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Mavericks | 55c | 270$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Heat | 48c | 249.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 47c | 203.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Mavericks | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdafc…dbadbacked Mavericks | 55c | 182.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Heat | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Mavericks | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 46c | 111$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Mavericks | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Mavericks | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Heat | 48c | 61.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…24a5backed Mavericks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…88acbacked Mavericks | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Heat | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Mavericks | 55c | 23.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Mavericks | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Heat vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.