TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,447
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,625

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,447 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ac1…a0f2backed Over57c1,904$1,090 inLost-$1,089.9811051.8%57 W · 53 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under43c1,421$611 inWon+$809.973,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under45c1,001$445 inWon+$555.39,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4010…77d4backed Over51c900$459 inLost-$45948146.2%222 W · 259 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Under49c759$372 inWon+$387.0952460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under42c482.78$203 inWon+$280.011,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over56c400$224 inLost-$22491050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over48c380.77$183 inLost-$182.774,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under62c272$170 inWon+$102.371,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over35c214.82$75 inLost-$75.193,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa65b…0419backed Over55c181.82$100 inLost-$10014763.3%93 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over57c165$95 inLost-$94.712,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under40c151.67$61 inWon+$912,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under49c141$69 inWon+$71.912,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over56c100$56 inLost-$564,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f93…8deebacked Over55c75.49$42 inLost-$41.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Over55c60$33 inLost-$3324645.9%113 W · 133 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d85…4c7abacked Over56c56.13$31 inLost-$31.25251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b23…bbb5backed Over60c51.33$31 inLost-$30.814841.9%62 W · 86 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under43c35$15 inWon+$19.798,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Over60c33.33$20 inLost-$2025351%129 W · 124 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over59c25.9$15 inLost-$15.272,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Over55c24.66$14 inLost-$13.5611445.6%52 W · 62 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17a3…8dadbacked Over64c15.63$10 inLost-$104235.7%15 W · 27 L-6.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-29.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.