NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3292e39412cca36e984feed015853b08fbed1c73b7f420d273c9f595cb153e40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 52c | 2,956$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 53c | 2,160$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.52 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…f0ecbacked Over | 51c | 1,993$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.33 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Over | 48c | 1,070$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.6 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 725.9$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.28 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 45c | 524$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc0…a988backed Under | 51c | 491$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.59 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 52c | 482.27$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 357.14$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 292$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 269.54$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.69 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 52c | 229$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 51c | 158.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3671…e31dbacked Over | 53c | 114$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Over | 53c | 71.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…0074backed Under | 48c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 55.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…e5c9backed Over | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Under | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 54.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 52.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 46c | 49.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Over | 50c | 49.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…089fbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Heat vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.