TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Heat, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$249,346
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$249,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,346 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Heat50c185,069$92,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92,420.5320055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Mavericks50c150,000$75,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,00026753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Mavericks50c29,952$14,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,033.861,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Heat50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00027747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks50c18,257$9,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,060.862,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Heat50c8,000$4,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0301,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Mavericks49c5,503$2,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,806.2892753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Heat51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55016641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Mavericks51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.579838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks51c3,733$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,829.173,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Heat49c3,597$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.4566853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks50c2,998$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.025,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Heat48c2,684$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.3222053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Heat51c2,625$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.62,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Heat51c2,400$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21215653.8%84 W · 72 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks50c2,000$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0042,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Mavericks51c1,893$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.6135651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat50c1,800$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Mavericks50c1,730$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.832,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Mavericks49c1,608$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.0725642.6%109 W · 147 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks51c1,462$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.468,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Mavericks49c1,373$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.2562744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc444…20dabacked Mavericks50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6005850%29 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Mavericks51c1,176$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.4716442.1%69 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Mavericks49c1,096$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.0517354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Mavericks50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50051753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Mavericks50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50065339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Mavericks50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50046258.2%269 W · 193 L-0.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Heat51c992.16$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50613748.9%67 W · 70 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Mavericks50c858.3$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.682,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c9…8174backed Heat51c612.35$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.39851%50 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2662…975abacked Mavericks51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.243545.7%16 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+51.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Heat51c525.49$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26813644.9%61 W · 75 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Mavericks50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Mavericks51c490.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.212650%63 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Mavericks50c300$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14944654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Mavericks49c280$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.87341.1%30 W · 43 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Mavericks46c261.88$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.421,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks50c239.93$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.459,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Mavericks50c231.02$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.132,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat50c223.28$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.646,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed Mavericks48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1046058.3%35 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Mavericks50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10063142%265 W · 366 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Mavericks51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Heat51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe832…7abbbacked Heat51c195.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.955455.6%30 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat51c127$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.771,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Heat51c117.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6019548.7%95 W · 100 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Heat56c116.07$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6532450%162 W · 162 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Mavericks52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4895548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Mavericks48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5254951.9%285 W · 264 L-2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked Mavericks48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5211346%52 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Heat50c99.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5035851.7%185 W · 173 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Heat51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Mavericks50c97.78$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9113550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Mavericks48c90.12$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2952643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf921…94dbbacked Mavericks52c90$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.26749.3%33 W · 34 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Mavericks47c84.16$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4280744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb940…50b4backed Heat55c78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat48c70.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.794,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Heat51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3051651.2%264 W · 252 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Mavericks59c48.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7112156.2%68 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed Heat51c47.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Heat23c47.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.823,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8477…d936backed Heat51c46.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.63616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-69.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9d8…0074backed Mavericks46c41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.146100%6 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3775…2309backed Heat49c40.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdafc…dbadbacked Mavericks50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209131.9%29 W · 62 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3552…f07bbacked Heat50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016849.4%83 W · 85 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ffe…1bc9backed Mavericks50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Mavericks50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2017527.4%48 W · 127 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Mavericks51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2223445.7%107 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…1e85backed Heat51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec89…8de0backed Heat51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205860.3%35 W · 23 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb14…e0c6backed Mavericks52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.46850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x333c…7856backed Mavericks48c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Heat55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022556.9%128 W · 97 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Heat51c35.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1822342.2%94 W · 129 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Mavericks50c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9327350.9%139 W · 134 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Mavericks50c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9332649.7%162 W · 164 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Mavericks50c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9327251.1%139 W · 133 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Mavericks50c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9331852.2%166 W · 152 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd68e…7c6cbacked Mavericks50c33.64$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.82785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick51cpaid+68.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e3f…25debacked Heat50c32.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.37911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.5wins-0.39per pick50cpaid-79%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Heat51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.317447.7%83 W · 91 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Mavericks51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7124552.7%129 W · 116 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Mavericks51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7110751.4%55 W · 52 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Mavericks51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7126648.5%129 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Mavericks51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7110646.2%49 W · 57 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Mavericks51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7125150.2%126 W · 125 L-1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x976c…7634backed Mavericks51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20c7…f12fbacked Mavericks51c29.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.77546.7%35 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a05…0329backed Mavericks50c29.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.86434.4%22 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc968…c59bbacked Mavericks52c29.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.043151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e9…f67fbacked Mavericks52c28.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.83955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa19f…f745backed Heat53c28.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156755.2%37 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b23…bbb5backed Mavericks51c26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7414841.9%62 W · 86 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa393…29f7backed Mavericks50c24.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.041346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Mavericks50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1037253.5%199 W · 173 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Mavericks50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1053951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.