NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe89f59cf51942652f5e3ecfe801f16ceab1b6d59b9917d0af9e15dfe86adf743
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 9,452$4,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,442.39 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 9,128$4,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,290.35 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f1…bebdbacked Over | 49c | 8,097$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 48c | 5,579$2,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 52c | 5,500$2,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 3,339$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.96 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 50c | 2,610$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.19 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 1,556$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 1,421$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…87d5backed Over | 51c | 878$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.78 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 52c | 851.64$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.59 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Over | 47c | 847.57$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.45 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 788$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 74c | 706$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.56 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 53c | 694$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.8 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 49c | 571$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.21 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.99 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 46c | 479$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.66 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Under | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 227.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.66 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d53…061cbacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -18.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 49c | 187.75$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 131.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 48c | 104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 101.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4e…457abacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 51c | 76.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 47c | 38.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Under | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Under | 47c | 26.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 203 | 56.7%115 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…9881backed Under | 76c | 21.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Over | 73c | 16.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Heat vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.