NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Mavericks: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x030a02e63eadf099a265c3ad11ec3a77aef5d2a517a0e032edf18fd407e582fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Heat, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Mavericks | 43c | 303.65$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.08 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat | 57c | 286.44$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.27 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 39c | 249.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Heat | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Heat | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks | 43c | 108.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Mavericks | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Heat | 61c | 86.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…9e0abacked Heat | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Heat | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Heat | 61c | 17.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Mavericks: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Heat vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.