NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4b0d99ebeb861c51a1cdd849c0315636ae2403503d9fab4e9e454429fbbbded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 2,891$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 49c | 2,341$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2e…2ad2backed Under | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5e…9bd5backed Over | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…6275backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 50cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Under | 51c | 978.41$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.42 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7591…9829backed Under | 56c | 640.38$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.38 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 43c | 604.72$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.03 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 57c | 549$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.07 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 521.92$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.08 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 214$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…e291backed Under | 52c | 111$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 45c | 106$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 40c | 66.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206c…06b3backed Over | 49c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…9779backed Over | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 46.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…88acbacked Under | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Heat vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.