TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran military response by Monday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,041,116
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$959,250

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,041,116 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 444 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc615…221dbacked Yes4c64,414$2,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,614.711729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes17c62,008$10,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,639.839815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cca…278dbacked Yes16c31,241$4,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,986.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes31c30,487$9,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,494.851127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No76c29,981$22,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,090.2921531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes10c28,800$2,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,911.834214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Yes10c28,542$2,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,730.93933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b93…3c34backed Yes5c23,305$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.263116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No17c22,837$3,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,983.42941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes10c18,011$1,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,801.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes9c15,140$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.63329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-77.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes66c14,778$9,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,688.071643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19a5…84bcbacked Yes58c14,424$8,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,310.01450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes13c14,371$1,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,823.46137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x063b…7328backed Yes10c14,000$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-44.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed No78c11,217$8,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,456.993243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes3c11,154$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.661855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+27.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes17c10,869$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.3314724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes12c10,715$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.885121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ca…e5cfbacked Yes46c10,623$4,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,896.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1189…a9e0backed Yes39c10,421$4,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,106.77185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-92.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x105b…08f0backed Yes42c9,108$3,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,830.53714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e76…ef4ebacked No22c8,950$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,016.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+131.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2736…3625backed Yes45c8,420$3,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,797.05714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-78.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xece1…2b04backed Yes8c7,412$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.47616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0428…9b44backed Yes6c6,831$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.19714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-80%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes0c6,178$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.828427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ca…8802backed Yes7c6,110$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d6…d67abacked Yes10c5,824$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes15c5,706$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.6826423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8c…e710backed Yes9c5,556$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Yes14c4,549$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.873540%14 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb5…8e40backed Yes2c4,223$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No54c4,208$2,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.453148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb011…2d13backed Yes20c4,189$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.932138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd993…844abacked Yes9c4,026$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-86.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c4,018$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed Yes12c4,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x984f…9debbacked No58c3,743$2,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6797…7697backed No19c3,602$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,900.812142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No19c3,564$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,893.695749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes73c3,506$2,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,569.851323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa16…5fffbacked Yes7c3,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafbf…c354backed Yes21c3,247$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes2c3,246$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.161315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-73.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefcc…1444backed No67c3,239$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b60…f259backed Yes47c3,190$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes25c3,009$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.747337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccec…28ffbacked No17c3,000$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,495.35850%4 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+72.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes2c3,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4516225.9%42 W · 120 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92c3…bd0ebacked Yes9c3,000$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes14c2,850$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.431723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ec…ba7bbacked Yes16c2,737$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.29862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed Yes34c2,728$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.562759.3%16 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+69.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbdc5…3f96backed Yes74c2,690$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59e3…71d5backed No72c2,684$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d6b3backed Yes36c2,603$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8a…1589backed Yes5c2,601$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80bf…e42ebacked Yes10c2,498$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.791421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-58.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x948e…92b5backed Yes12c2,424$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.361330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714f…64c5backed No42c2,364$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes14c2,234$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.056726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e72…3e8dbacked No19c2,225$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+229.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab6d…b458backed No16c2,220$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,868.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+92.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a50…1248backed Yes16c2,212$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd341…262dbacked Yes5c2,199$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b47…231fbacked Yes1c2,190$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7108…7492backed No79c2,145$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.311330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92c4…75c3backed No47c2,061$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x725f…c932backed No32c2,047$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe28a…8072backed No59c2,026$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.741662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked No56c2,000$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8901643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2b3…7469backed Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58d4…08d2backed Yes77c2,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes16c1,958$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.222825%7 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcd1…ee93backed No78c1,910$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.21471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x474a…b263backed Yes8c1,900$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x383a…c380backed No46c1,862$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.07580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8df4…3fdcbacked Yes28c1,792$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb98…8bfdbacked Yes78c1,750$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.77425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-68.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2705…dd34backed Yes6c1,596$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x749b…8805backed No56c1,587$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.36825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-60.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes26c1,466$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.612810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes10c1,466$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.995143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82d9…c24fbacked No45c1,457$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.912653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e66…8c05backed Yes78c1,412$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.3490%0 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes37c1,363$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.56254%1 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.24per pick28cpaid-83.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x495c…512bbacked Yes22c1,337$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.81323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes22c1,319$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.964030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes9c1,300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11740433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x664c…9ec8backed Yes73c1,274$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.7620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bb2…6c95backed No78c1,261$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.95475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8da…5edfbacked No23c1,259$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb169…b67abacked Yes61c1,243$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed No16c1,215$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.75644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb067…cc17backed Yes55c1,214$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.6320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a7f…57f6backed Yes80c1,153$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1665…cf22backed Yes10c1,131$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8025…fce2backed No17c1,108$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.4966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+68.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2050…feefbacked Yes21c1,103$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.