TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Knicks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Bucks, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,906,394
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,944,824

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,906,394 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,719 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a61…b560backed Bucks2c268,312$6,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,379.569640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf963…0637backed Bucks25c68,000$17,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,999.994742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Knicks80c63,172$50,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,671.9834062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Knicks72c60,267$43,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,671.3469852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Knicks72c49,587$35,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,948.9372648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd123…d341backed Bucks28c49,473$13,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,809.42240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed Bucks30c47,832$14,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,349.5710459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Knicks75c40,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Knicks74c38,083$28,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,901.6620055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed Bucks28c30,480$8,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,526.951435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Bucks26c30,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,799.9451350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Knicks73c29,025$21,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,715.0313455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bucks21c27,317$5,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,615.5685742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Bucks27c25,470$6,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,804.1359646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Bucks25c25,000$6,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,249.9813248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks20c23,638$4,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,610.498,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks28c22,522$6,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,393.85,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Knicks72c20,680$14,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,790.4237557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks29c20,403$5,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,892.329,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Bucks26c19,999$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.8310837%40 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks74c19,372$14,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,967.112,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Knicks77c17,643$13,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,029.647869.2%54 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bucks24c17,360$4,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,150.791,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddd…39eebacked Bucks28c16,346$4,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,642.9722542.2%95 W · 130 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e11…82a9backed Knicks67c14,498$9,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,791.57837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Bucks28c14,492$4,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,057.655850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks69c13,028$8,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,073.34,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Knicks77c12,411$9,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,905.921,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Knicks74c10,913$8,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,880.792,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Knicks76c10,723$8,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,585.4248046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bucks7c10,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.551,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Bucks27c9,417$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,520.4744648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Knicks75c9,283$6,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,320.7511558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Bucks23c9,142$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,082.2326038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Bucks30c9,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70039349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d18…87c9backed Bucks10c7,843$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8526…3b5dbacked Bucks27c7,781$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,101.126636.4%24 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Knicks71c7,028$4,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.112142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Knicks71c7,000$4,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,03018151.9%94 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bucks15c6,772$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.792,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bucks28c6,737$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900.71,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Bucks35c6,208$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,196.0485344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2df3…698bbacked Bucks34c5,509$1,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,876.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Knicks69c5,500$3,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.773649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks29c5,374$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580.441,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed Bucks35c5,262$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.115547.1%73 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed Knicks56c5,226$2,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,281.4321548.4%104 W · 111 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Bucks35c5,221$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,831.776850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Bucks26c5,183$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.848944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x264c…8250backed Knicks71c5,062$3,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,467.984261.9%26 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Knicks69c5,000$3,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.3378445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf0…251cbacked Bucks30c5,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4807339.7%29 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Bucks29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ba…8a09backed Bucks31c4,560$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.624223.8%10 W · 32 L-8.2wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-48.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bucks28c4,500$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2601,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Knicks50c4,246$2,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1236747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Knicks73c4,110$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.598662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b3…2e90backed Knicks59c4,024$2,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.041553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Bucks30c4,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Bucks31c4,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2301,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Knicks72c3,800$2,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06462351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks72c3,500$2,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.382,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks23c3,465$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.63,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Knicks72c3,333$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.2428850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Bucks27c3,117$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.681,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd4…308cbacked Knicks64c3,016$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.566660.6%40 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Bucks36c2,792$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00031044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Bucks25c2,768$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.3811649.1%57 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bucks20c2,574$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.721,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Knicks73c2,573$1,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.4644459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bd5…81b0backed Bucks19c2,534$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.044617.4%8 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Bucks24c2,400$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.9761835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Knicks72c2,300$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63621450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Bucks29c2,300$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65917861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Bucks26c2,300$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.9924330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Bucks29c2,241$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65066744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Bucks41c2,225$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.2117637.5%66 W · 110 L-16.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Knicks76c2,163$1,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.761,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks30c2,129$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.383,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Bucks28c2,000$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.621951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Knicks75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Bucks30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Bucks49c1,991$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.4416446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08cb…a17dbacked Bucks27c1,974$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.07633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-48.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcefc…ada8backed Bucks26c1,962$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.07540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Bucks34c1,881$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64027152%141 W · 130 L-17.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe91…7b3dbacked Knicks73c1,868$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.7919144.5%85 W · 106 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Knicks75c1,867$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.6734942.7%149 W · 200 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Knicks77c1,827$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.141,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Knicks77c1,784$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.712,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Bucks1c1,770$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.71,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3759…4009backed Knicks73c1,767$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.125166.7%34 W · 17 L-0.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea9…e3c0backed Knicks73c1,673$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.915655.4%31 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b38…6f5abacked Knicks75c1,667$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.67450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49b1…3a35backed Bucks27c1,599$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.821553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef59…b79fbacked Bucks26c1,577$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Knicks62c1,558$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.8521142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Knicks74c1,556$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.4872450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Bucks25c1,539$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.3719441.2%80 W · 114 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Bucks14c1,500$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.589444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.