NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-8.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d5cc66e221b7118b01c9035a2a4fefb85812ca7928a0386af3b84b2af3454a1

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Knicksof Knicks, Bucks
Resolved: Nov 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,950
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,823

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,950 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5d76…9168backed Bucks	53c	6,548$3,463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,463.13	37	59.5%22 W · 15 L	+5.1wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks	52c	5,571$2,876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,875.53	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks	44c	4,437$1,971 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,465.98	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Knicks	49c	3,250$1,593 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,657.65	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Knicks	50c	2,110$1,055 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,055	145	49%71 W · 74 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc233…f731backed Knicks	52c	1,863$969 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$894.32	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Knicks	50c	1,200$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600	74	47.3%35 W · 39 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Knicks	45c	1,120$509 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$611	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Bucks	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	415	53.3%221 W · 194 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Bucks	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	154	61.7%95 W · 59 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Bucks	54c	999.99$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$539.99	270	51.5%139 W · 131 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Knicks	44c	500$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Knicks	52c	230.77$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.77	136	44.9%61 W · 75 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Knicks	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Knicks	44c	168$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.08	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Knicks	52c	105.77$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.77	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Knicks	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Bucks	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	661	53.3%352 W · 309 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb32e…a46abacked Bucks	51c	78.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	143	45.5%65 W · 78 L	+9.6wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Knicks	47c	48.14$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.7	121	56.2%68 W · 53 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd2…8759backed Bucks	54c	40.67$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.96	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.32per pick	52cpaid	-60%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Bucks	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	118	40.7%48 W · 70 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e07…3702backed Knicks	46c	39.13$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.13	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Knicks	52c	36.94$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.73	81	46.9%38 W · 43 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Bucks	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19a7…3ec1backed Bucks	49c	29.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d4e…8163backed Knicks	51c	22.15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.85	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-8.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event