NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3ab49bf8026b12af427a19c0f19ed7fe85f3e43055ccff12548edf14f44e470

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Knicksof Knicks, Bucks
Resolved: Nov 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,706

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,215 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks	46c	8,811$4,023 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,022.99	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks	55c	6,796$3,718 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,078.02	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x602a…0d75backed Bucks	54c	4,630$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc046…cf3abacked Knicks	54c	4,630$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,129.63	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks	46c	3,920$1,803 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,116.58	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks	43c	3,447$1,498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,498.44	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks	42c	1,615$684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$684.01	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Bucks	1c	1,565$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.65	298	10.4%31 W · 267 L	+22.5wins	+0.08per pick	3cpaid	+230.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Knicks	53c	888.84$472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$416.42	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e07…c0d4backed Knicks	59c	797.97$471 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.17	134	56.7%76 W · 58 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Bucks	48c	788$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.24	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Bucks	46c	760$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.6	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Bucks	47c	727.1$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.74	181	51.9%94 W · 87 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Knicks	46c	505.5$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.97	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Knicks	60c	500.42$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.17	232	48.7%113 W · 119 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Bucks	44c	500$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Knicks	56c	500$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220	456	47.1%215 W · 241 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Bucks	46c	500$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Bucks	46c	381.61$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.78	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf58d…914abacked Knicks	58c	344.83$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.83	138	60.1%83 W · 55 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Knicks	54c	277.77$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.77	60	51.7%31 W · 29 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Bucks	43c	243$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.49	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Knicks	54c	222.22$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.22	229	53.7%123 W · 106 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Knicks	54c	198$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.08	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…8117backed Knicks	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	204	44.6%91 W · 113 L	-9.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Knicks	52c	168$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.64	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc5…9cf9backed Knicks	60c	167.48$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.48	69	56.5%39 W · 30 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Knicks	46c	150$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	+4.7wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Knicks	54c	130$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.8	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Bucks	42c	130$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.6	337	43.6%147 W · 190 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Bucks	43c	127.55$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.21	608	34.4%209 W · 399 L	+8.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Bucks	47c	117.02$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Knicks	60c	110$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a82…b6bdbacked Bucks	49c	104.08$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Knicks	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	378	50.3%190 W · 188 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…a408backed Knicks	56c	79.48$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.97	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Bucks	49c	78.8$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.61	180	53.3%96 W · 84 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Knicks	54c	61.11$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.11	197	48.2%95 W · 102 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d3…ada0backed Knicks	55c	54.55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.55	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Knicks	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Knicks	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Knicks	59c	47.45$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.45	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabf…97e5backed Knicks	57c	40$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.2	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c9…8174backed Knicks	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	98	51%50 W · 48 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f1…6349backed Knicks	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	173	50.9%88 W · 85 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Knicks	59c	35$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.35	149	53%79 W · 70 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Knicks	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d61…ce94backed Knicks	54c	29.63$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.63	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bucks	47c	29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.63	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bucks	46c	28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45da…806fbacked Knicks	55c	27.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.27	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	60cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event