NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 234.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f3eb2f2504a2dae147ccf84f54662a846cca35752a2f95421aa9486b4c1438a

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,727
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,360

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,727 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ced…0938backed Under	54c	2,389$1,290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,098.89	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Under	53c	1,181$626 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$555	403	50.1%202 W · 201 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Over	47c	1,177$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$547.61	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over	42c	1,120$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.39	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over	44c	931.82$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	46c	809.18$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.76	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd8d…a108backed Under	55c	635.04$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.04	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	45c	543.23$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.45	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…3918backed Over	51c	510$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.1	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb53a…fcd3backed Under	49c	510$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.1	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.29per pick	46cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over	43c	500$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	57c	500$285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	44c	436$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.84	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	55c	396.73$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.76	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Under	58c	279.64$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.45	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94a1…6bffbacked Under	55c	201.03$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.59	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under	49c	200.23$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.77	617	40.7%251 W · 366 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Over	45c	195.56$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	151	46.4%70 W · 81 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	37c	166$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.66	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	58c	137$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.54	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Under	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3576…8117backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	204	44.6%91 W · 113 L	-9.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Under	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.5	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde4f…87ccbacked Under	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61e…49b1backed Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	46c	95$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.25	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under	45c	72.49$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.87	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	45c	71$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.9	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Under	50c	70$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.1	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Over	54c	55.31$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	194	51.5%100 W · 94 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	50c	53.51$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.76	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Over	47c	49.23$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	608	34.4%209 W · 399 L	+8.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Over	55c	30.91$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	256	42.2%108 W · 148 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	57c	28$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.99	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ef…a7a4backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 234.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event