TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Nets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jazzof Jazz, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,203,563
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,225,422

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,203,563 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Nets36c133,632$47,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,707.772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nets38c83,169$31,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,611.84,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Jazz64c66,798$42,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,057.972,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Jazz63c55,308$34,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,463.831,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Jazz48c41,949$20,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,837.749640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Jazz62c40,000$24,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,20038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Nets56c30,000$16,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,799.9922457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Nets38c28,745$10,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,923.2713248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed Nets37c27,380$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0003534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Nets37c27,080$10,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,019.593411.8%4 W · 30 L-8.5wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-62%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Nets42c23,057$9,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,573.4916848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Jazz64c23,002$14,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,327.352,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Nets37c20,436$7,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,561.3427424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Jazz63c20,000$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,40059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Nets37c19,271$7,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,082.5536741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Jazz54c16,510$8,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,594.9917331.8%55 W · 118 L-8.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Jazz65c15,385$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,384.6234062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Jazz58c14,000$8,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,939.9744337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Jazz62c13,189$8,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,955.7159646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Jazz62c12,951$8,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,874.4869852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Jazz44c11,909$5,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,718.6148046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Nets50c11,813$5,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,858.6526038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Jazz64c11,400$7,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,065.2647751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets38c10,447$3,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,969.9387144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz59c10,150$5,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,180.143,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Nets37c10,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,70023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4a…87d4backed Jazz64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6003551.4%18 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Jazz61c9,880$6,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,820.2313743.8%60 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Jazz63c9,250$5,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,422.5570147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets55c9,089$4,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,960.134,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Jazz63c8,736$5,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,232.51,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Jazz62c8,687$5,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,308.4935651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bfa…4a15backed Jazz62c7,866$4,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,989.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e01…7ffbbacked Nets37c7,859$2,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,907.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz62c7,798$4,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,949.329,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nets66c7,646$5,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,016.675,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Nets38c7,107$2,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700.719851%50 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ee…3d48backed Jazz50c5,624$2,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,827.311741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Nets36c5,050$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8181,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Jazz63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8505251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Nets35c5,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75035235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Jazz64c4,961$3,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.691,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Nets52c4,871$2,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.361,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Nets37c4,500$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.9747028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Jazz44c4,294$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.113435.8%48 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f3…ca39backed Jazz62c3,992$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Nets46c3,911$1,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.797259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nets62c3,766$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.061,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Jazz63c3,537$2,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.631,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Nets37c3,520$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.420542.9%88 W · 117 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Jazz64c3,235$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.692753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Jazz55c3,042$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.041,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Jazz63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.9943051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Jazz62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.9522053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb35a…98a0backed Nets38c2,888$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Jazz62c2,888$1,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.1244459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Nets38c2,873$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.4612541.6%52 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Jazz59c2,824$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.461,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a90…7bf8backed Jazz63c2,800$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.999260.9%56 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Nets55c2,676$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47714243%61 W · 81 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fde…8ab1backed Nets64c2,577$1,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.5610769.2%74 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa89e…fb60backed Nets56c2,508$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.635379.2%42 W · 11 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Jazz62c2,484$1,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.3248944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Jazz40c2,480$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.462454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Jazz63c2,458$1,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.625850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz59c2,436$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.378,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Nets40c2,393$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.4273649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…0215backed Nets35c2,370$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.52642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Nets37c2,285$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.412,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Jazz53c2,233$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.3350838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Nets43c2,170$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.5372241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Jazz63c2,147$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.531,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Nets38c2,109$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.5414254.9%78 W · 64 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nets52c2,080$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.593,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Nets20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Nets39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78031347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3008…60c8backed Nets6c2,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Nets37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.9950239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3dc…889bbacked Jazz62c1,872$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.36666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+56.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Nets39c1,792$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.8894951.3%487 W · 462 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aed…38cbbacked Jazz63c1,720$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.810652.8%56 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nets55c1,688$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.633,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Jazz62c1,687$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.1391050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Nets38c1,617$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.5724048.3%116 W · 124 L-13.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e82…6b84backed Nets37c1,585$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nets42c1,572$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.4581529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Jazz61c1,566$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.9211741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe91…7b3dbacked Nets39c1,559$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60819144.5%85 W · 106 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5c…c9eebacked Jazz64c1,521$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.442075%15 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Nets44c1,513$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.4976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f3…e383backed Jazz63c1,500$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5551258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea9…e3c0backed Jazz62c1,500$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5705655.4%31 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Jazz62c1,483$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.712843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Nets65c1,456$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.261,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Jazz61c1,417$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.6995049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d90…1310backed Jazz75c1,409$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.6615274.3%113 W · 39 L+22.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3436…17c5backed Jazz62c1,351$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.42462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b7b…5608backed Jazz63c1,316$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.921963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3aa6…4979backed Nets38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8ba…8a09backed Nets37c1,315$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.44223.8%10 W · 32 L-8.2wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-48.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.