NBA · resolved market
Spread: Jazz (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2168f1b0e9e5ca3cbe3a8538016c7d5a45d8d193a9a50f4b68a3175933f608fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Jazz, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Nets | 44c | 3,073$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…e88ebacked Jazz | 59c | 2,056$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…5626backed Nets | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…5ecebacked Jazz | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 56c | 1,435$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 44c | 1,252$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.04 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Jazz | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 61c | 805$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Nets | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Jazz | 26c | 400$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Jazz | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Nets | 44c | 201.46$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Nets | 46c | 169.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Jazz | 54c | 140$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Nets | 45c | 139.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa2…1531backed Jazz | 55c | 107.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Jazz | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Jazz | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Jazz | 49c | 77.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nets | 44c | 70.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Jazz | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46e5…4c5ebacked Jazz | 54c | 63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Jazz | 56c | 55.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe490…8e6cbacked Jazz | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Jazz | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Nets | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Jazz | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Jazz | 56c | 43.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Jazz | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Nets | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Nets | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Jazz | 58c | 37.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Jazz | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Jazz | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Jazz | 54c | 36.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Jazz | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…88acbacked Jazz | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7a…dac8backed Nets | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Nets | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…b3c7backed Nets | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…62f4backed Jazz | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Jazz | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Nets | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Nets | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jazz (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Jazz (-2.5)Nets won
- Jazz vs. NetsJazz won
- Jazz vs. Nets: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Jazz (-4.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Jazz (-5.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.