NBA · resolved market
Spread: Jazz (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe73cacfcf5fdc943a075d357080e47e9de43405b8b156da4dce2dba11d4bb9f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Jazz, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Nets | 52c | 17,896$9,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,305.82 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Jazz | 48c | 7,208$3,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,748.07 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 48c | 5,706$2,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,970.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Jazz | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Jazz | 48c | 2,071$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.83 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Nets | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nets | 52c | 530.61$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.61 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Jazz | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Jazz | 48c | 229.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.17 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7c…6d35backed Nets | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3f…46a9backed Nets | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nets | 45c | 72.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Jazz | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Jazz | 48c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nets | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Jazz | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jazz (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Jazz (-2.5)Nets won
- Jazz vs. NetsJazz won
- Jazz vs. Nets: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Jazz (-3.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Jazz (-4.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.