NBA · resolved market
Spread: Jazz (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf40d78bf7f5c56b60987253335b28e8b0a29f23200f229ee8475af17d7095ac3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Jazz, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 50c | 3,773$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Nets | 51c | 2,308$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf94…402dbacked Jazz | 52c | 2,034$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8567…514cbacked Nets | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Nets | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.97 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Nets | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 50c | 958.86$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.15 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Jazz | 48c | 831.56$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.41 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Nets | 46c | 765.65$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.2 | 367 | 41.4%152 W · 215 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Nets | 48c | 522.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Jazz | 54c | 490.41$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.59 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Nets | 47c | 486$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.42 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 48c | 455$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 47c | 427$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Nets | 49c | 311.44$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.24 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Jazz | 50c | 307.22$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.61 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Jazz | 53c | 284.9$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.9 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Jazz | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Jazz | 52c | 210$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Jazz | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Jazz | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Nets | 45c | 182.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…3ee8backed Jazz | 54c | 151.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Nets | 49c | 149.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Nets | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc0…a988backed Jazz | 55c | 146$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nets | 46c | 138.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…3560backed Nets | 51c | 134$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Jazz | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Nets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Nets | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Nets | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed Nets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Jazz | 54c | 96.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Nets | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Nets | 50c | 79.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Nets | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Nets | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Jazz | 53c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…6a83backed Jazz | 48c | 58.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Nets | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Nets | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Jazz | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked Jazz | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Nets | 48c | 45.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Nets | 53c | 44.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Jazz | 54c | 42.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb742…126abacked Jazz | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Jazz | 35c | 41.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…4dafbacked Nets | 65c | 41.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Jazz | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…d285backed Nets | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3775…2309backed Nets | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Jazz | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Jazz | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…74ebbacked Jazz | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Nets | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Jazz | 47c | 35.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Jazz | 52c | 32.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…e1c0backed Nets | 53c | 31.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Nets | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb14…e0c6backed Nets | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Jazz | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nets | 46c | 29.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc3…93bbbacked Nets | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c44…739abacked Nets | 53c | 29.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…e256backed Jazz | 51c | 26.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Jazz | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Jazz | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4615…5866backed Nets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…f5c4backed Jazz | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Nets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…3ea6backed Nets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…00edbacked Jazz | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…87cfbacked Nets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Jazz | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jazz (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Jazz (-2.5)Nets won
- Jazz vs. NetsJazz won
- Jazz vs. Nets: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Jazz (-3.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Jazz (-5.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.