TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Islanders vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Islandersof Islanders, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$929,681
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$947,010

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $929,681 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 798 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Islanders37c380,830$140,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239,931.29340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3d…7422backed Golden Knights63c176,220$110,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110,753.9314057.9%81 W · 59 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Golden Knights63c174,183$109,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109,973.2411955.5%66 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Islanders62c103,357$63,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,791.914538.6%56 W · 89 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Golden Knights46c74,999$34,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,255.7342552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Golden Knights63c69,221$43,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,609.2357453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf90e…0b56backed Golden Knights63c40,052$25,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,231.4413449.3%66 W · 68 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Golden Knights35c36,908$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,0002339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Islanders38c27,000$10,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,739.9910352.4%54 W · 49 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Golden Knights63c21,500$13,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,54513553.3%72 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Islanders61c21,255$13,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,252.1544848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Islanders37c20,000$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,6003655.6%20 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Golden Knights30c12,264$3,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,725.1927143.5%118 W · 153 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Islanders36c10,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,40019451.5%100 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Islanders36c8,638$3,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,528.1152050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Golden Knights55c8,306$4,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,577.6875251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf915…388fbacked Islanders76c6,621$5,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Golden Knights18c6,216$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.1492848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Islanders37c5,405$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,405.4129651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x560f…6351backed Islanders72c5,361$3,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-72.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Islanders48c5,211$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,710.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa9…d8adbacked Golden Knights1c5,162$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Golden Knights56c4,989$2,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788.451,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e39…3122backed Islanders37c4,908$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,092.022650%13 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Islanders37c4,595$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,894.5950049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Golden Knights21c4,044$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.9762951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Islanders37c3,887$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.8130551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb52d…95ffbacked Golden Knights64c3,750$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4005141.2%21 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-26.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0554…3de4backed Islanders47c3,700$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,972.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Golden Knights51c3,611$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.2189547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Islanders59c3,487$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.311,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Golden Knights63c3,175$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005248.1%25 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Golden Knights19c3,066$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.4593953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Islanders37c3,000$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,89051045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Islanders36c3,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.7430552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf9…68debacked Islanders66c2,845$1,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Islanders37c2,836$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.3291653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Islanders37c2,836$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.241,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Golden Knights63c2,710$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.197651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Golden Knights23c2,670$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.6799638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Golden Knights3c2,666$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.982174.1%9 W · 208 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Islanders54c2,503$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.343,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Golden Knights26c2,446$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.5585464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Golden Knights34c2,381$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.612,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x17c2…68c9backed Islanders69c2,324$1,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Islanders39c2,160$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.2143743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Islanders36c2,113$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.4269550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf08…9f3fbacked Islanders80c2,005$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.154650%23 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Golden Knights1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Islanders37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26038046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Islanders37c1,919$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.9226946.1%124 W · 145 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Islanders55c1,912$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.4524749.8%123 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Islanders37c1,900$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,19724845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Golden Knights48c1,791$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.9461848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Islanders71c1,707$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.762,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc449…2239backed Islanders48c1,698$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.9810255.9%57 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d8…a851backed Golden Knights64c1,691$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.171442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00ea…f807backed Islanders36c1,689$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.96825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Islanders67c1,680$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.426344.5%117 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Islanders48c1,528$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.352352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb6a…f116backed Golden Knights64c1,416$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.621330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2352…c350backed Golden Knights63c1,400$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Golden Knights62c1,380$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.3688151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Islanders36c1,375$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.576253.2%33 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Islanders62c1,356$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.751,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Islanders68c1,349$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.129562.1%59 W · 36 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b5f…0c49backed Islanders37c1,300$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+75.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Islanders66c1,293$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.561,05442.5%448 W · 606 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab2d…2ed0backed Islanders53c1,201$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.16933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Islanders70c1,115$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.482,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeec…961cbacked Islanders37c1,100$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6931100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9807…157bbacked Islanders37c1,100$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69320144.8%90 W · 111 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Islanders37c1,070$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.122150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Islanders35c1,055$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.791,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Islanders45c1,035$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.7120751.2%106 W · 101 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Islanders36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64034845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Golden Knights20c1,000$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1962114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b33…a120backed Golden Knights63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Islanders65c999.99$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35014757.1%84 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Golden Knights29c882$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.7911537.4%43 W · 72 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Islanders37c867$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.211,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…b38fbacked Golden Knights63c853$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.39475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…ab24backed Islanders38c850$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd60…ab55backed Golden Knights48c849.71$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Golden Knights61c846.92$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.621,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc439…1308backed Golden Knights64c810.94$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5194067.5%27 W · 13 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+37.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4f97…13d2backed Islanders37c810.81$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.812441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…e4c8backed Islanders37c810.81$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.812347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Golden Knights26c806$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.129949.5%49 W · 50 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Golden Knights63c800$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50468449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Islanders36c749.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Islanders67c743.04$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.24047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f4e…31cbbacked Islanders76c731.77$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d7…da62backed Golden Knights35c714.69$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018840.4%76 W · 112 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Golden Knights35c704.03$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.721,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ce…bca1backed Golden Knights57c701.75$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a1…88f3backed Golden Knights63c699.98$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.992030%6 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x33b9…ed3abacked Golden Knights40c658.18$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.057146.5%33 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Golden Knights63c651.06$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.8462249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x716d…eaf2backed Golden Knights64c619.59$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.011963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.