TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Trump post 11-15 times this week?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$516,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$545,998

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $516,900 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30e4…5102backed No27c41,464$11,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,316.154820.8%10 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid+187%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No5c25,969$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.051421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes39c25,910$10,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,737.841118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-64.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98cb…bd72backed No47c13,667$6,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,421.372524%6 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8371…06febacked Yes63c13,094$8,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7049…c20ebacked No56c12,566$7,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,044.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc9c…d5c5backed Yes77c11,751$9,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,681.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63f8…60acbacked No7c10,304$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.4290%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c8…d3e7backed Yes57c10,140$5,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,309.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+73.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed Yes66c9,000$5,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,078.442832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No74c8,546$6,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,351.3660%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa357…1045backed No14c7,737$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.5990%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cc…04b4backed Yes59c7,257$4,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,976.52540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x719d…4e73backed No18c6,536$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.591838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fe…c728backed No34c6,412$2,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,169.091020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bba…9b86backed No2c6,310$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.151612.5%2 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-47.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf22c…9050backed No21c5,952$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bda…121bbacked Yes79c5,952$4,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed No23c5,892$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.4260%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e3…246bbacked Yes70c5,838$4,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.54837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x777e…2836backed No35c5,550$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e0…98cebacked No33c4,803$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.46540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+163.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23bf…578bbacked Yes49c4,654$2,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.291346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a1…8f8dbacked No43c4,651$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a14…0762backed No49c4,500$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,216.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No3c4,449$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.97425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc111…d443backed No77c4,271$3,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,290.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5be…ee79backed No43c4,194$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b1…9ebdbacked Yes64c3,875$2,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.45250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes30c3,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4503132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x756a…1388backed No59c3,399$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes25c3,296$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,458.562123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No19c3,145$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.27616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-78.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9314…1e98backed No75c2,920$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1851241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick65cpaid-44.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No22c2,830$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfc…acb7backed No79c2,723$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a5…ee3dbacked No28c2,676$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc52f…4ab8backed Yes40c2,524$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0824…3bd9backed Yes65c2,500$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63f3…b6c8backed Yes22c2,357$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8454012.5%5 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+55.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed Yes19c2,074$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,674.67633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8d…eb66backed Yes44c1,959$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed Yes48c1,908$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.64450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No7c1,896$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc615…221dbacked Yes66c1,863$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No31c1,845$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579329.4%3 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e82…64abbacked No37c1,750$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f69…9c7abacked Yes27c1,715$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.711428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-46%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6691…17cfbacked No7c1,707$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes35c1,673$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.57450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204e…4236backed No18c1,600$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b3…b8cabacked No42c1,583$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked No10c1,500$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39e…e7c7backed No73c1,497$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10040%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No12c1,450$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d1…8eb2backed No34c1,449$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Yes66c1,421$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3743…e5b6backed No17c1,410$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.14742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+56.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes16c1,303$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+520.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes36c1,275$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.21747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked No5c1,267$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.27458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e53…e7a9backed No8c1,266$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb236…1d5dbacked No9c1,224$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca5…0adebacked No39c1,222$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182a…ef88backed Yes39c1,216$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.272814.3%4 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No44c1,198$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked No76c1,197$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.8120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed Yes70c1,090$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-52.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84de…b018backed Yes5c1,054$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick3cpaid+954.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed No30c1,020$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.61936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes4c1,000$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9568145.7%37 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes5c1,000$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick3cpaid+640.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32e3…d066backed No29c1,000$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No29c1,000$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2941369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+27.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed Yes3c999.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick3cpaid+681.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcede…f2f6backed No9c994.74$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cab…7222backed No17c949.99$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3c…f234backed No20c900$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a3…5532backed No26c890.75$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc910…5e8dbacked No17c855.34$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.140%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a69…50b9backed Yes76c789.7$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a20…c0bcbacked No32c786$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes50c747.18$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2637…8536backed No46c708$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42dd…48b7backed No37c700$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3da…8100backed No65c700$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-82.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6e2…cdbebacked Yes25c699.53$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+298.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1285…6a2fbacked Yes30c695.13$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41c4…3c7cbacked Yes73c678.61$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…67a9backed Yes77c675.74$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.213836.8%14 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70de…db94backed Yes29c666.25$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.0710527.6%29 W · 76 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Yes74c666$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.16837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes42c650$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.651233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes67c650$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefb…935cbacked No30c613.36$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeef5…689cbacked No29c605.54$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes2c600$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+634.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x192d…7d47backed No13c593.53$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.542714.8%4 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13c0…156abacked No17c587.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1b…397bbacked Yes70c585.12$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.