TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Trump post 50 or more times this week?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$644,238
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$666,716

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $644,238 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8371…06febacked Yes8c45,711$3,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,691.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Yes2c29,757$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.7560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes2c19,270$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.32329.4%3 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39f2…146ebacked Yes6c12,483$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes17c11,919$2,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.274820.8%10 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid+187%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes3c11,422$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.972123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7049…c20ebacked Yes9c10,742$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f8…60acbacked Yes1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8090%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc910…5e8dbacked Yes1c8,729$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe528…0f7fbacked Yes7c7,117$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes51c5,919$3,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,019.621118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-64.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes62c5,769$3,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,573.311010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked No40c5,726$2,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,453.83742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick15cpaid+506.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes27c5,577$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe13e…c564backed Yes12c4,542$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa357…1045backed Yes1c4,397$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5490%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9876…38e6backed Yes0c4,017$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.071915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed No70c3,923$2,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.45911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-84%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes25c3,917$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.851435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+76%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x63f3…b6c8backed No39c3,037$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,863.624012.5%5 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+55.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4667…a2d2backed Yes7c2,500$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No39c2,385$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Yes18c2,269$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.3460%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf54e…fdc0backed No58c1,729$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Yes67c1,614$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes1c1,600$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.44216.7%7 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9d5…6f6abacked Yes1c1,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1285…6a2fbacked Yes65c1,390$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No41c1,320$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.42450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes1c1,298$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.582729.6%8 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+66.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes1c1,081$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5322…237abacked Yes38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bba…9b86backed Yes1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111612.5%2 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-47.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6445…4ec0backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x685e…bb41backed Yes4c945.73$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.035521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52f…4ab8backed Yes59c845.99$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes62c840$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.463132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x969a…bc10backed Yes36c828.01$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes57c730.95$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3743…e5b6backed No38c699.99$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.25742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+56.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5ed…2ec2backed No37c675.68$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6880…8abebacked Yes47c670$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.2530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a38…67a9backed Yes62c650$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4033836.8%14 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes22c568$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf39e…e7c7backed Yes40c503.72$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed No66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170850%4 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+244.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5398…a652backed Yes33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+111.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa068…c1a7backed Yes67c446.37$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7c8…24dcbacked No79c429.1$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed No42c409.25$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes55c352.09$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.485345.3%24 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+56.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9266…7562backed Yes63c345$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8768…dd9bbacked Yes60c321.95$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b9b…a65ebacked No37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+634.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4c8…8618backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbee…dcf4backed Yes16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes20c250$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.36520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c6…b942backed Yes29c249.23$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e9…9f82backed Yes4c238.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8add…e083backed No39c230.77$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa071…d1d6backed Yes63c207.38$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed No35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1307328.8%21 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5175…a4f6backed Yes65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9629…f640backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes30c199.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x558c…c433backed No78c191.72$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+46.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes59c179.57$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.082623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-62%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5895…1b71backed Yes54c170$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd400…aad6backed Yes64c157.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd142…4020backed No70c146.23$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x360c…89bfbacked Yes52c140.88$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc995…50f5backed Yes62c120.48$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b73…4766backed Yes69c118$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70fa…196dbacked No68c104.55$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd1…ee93backed No74c102$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568145.7%37 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c23…088abacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x923c…da18backed No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+1,417.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7bf…e0e8backed Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeac5…0e69backed Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes35c84.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.156624.2%16 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b79…b3febacked Yes65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2651…2e1cbacked No47c69$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.57728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd857…14afbacked Yes59c68.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fdc…4958backed No37c67.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Yes57c63.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.46128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba3f…8b64backed Yes25c55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.75966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe065…d25fbacked Yes61c50.01$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed Yes64c50.01$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd1…0446backed No35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed No38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-12.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd9d4…8035backed No41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b3…aa17backed No38c44.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9f…2e3abacked Yes67c33.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaf1…56d8backed No67c31.34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…57fabacked Yes63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c91…b5ccbacked No78c20.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.