TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbbee…dcf4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst MLB at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT1729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+26.1%+$58.32
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$81
Will Great Britain win the 3rd most gold medals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$16
Will France win the 3rd most gold medals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$102.23
Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x400m Relay?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$22
Will Botswana win gold in the Men’s 4x400m Relay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$21
Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) win Gold in 5000m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$49.6
Olympic Men’s Basketball: Germany vs. Serbiabacked Serbia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT+81.8%+$45.04
Will Rai Benjamin (USA) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$35.99
Will Salwa Eid Naser (BRN) win gold in 400m W?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$41.9
Will Natalia Kaczmarek (POL) win gold in 400m W?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$16
Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x100m Relay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$74
Will the USA win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT+28.2%+$22
Will Letsile Tebogo (BOT) win Gold in 200m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT+474.7%+$206.5
Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 200m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT+525%+$167.99
Will Kenneth Bednarek (USA) win Gold in 200m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$24
Olympic Basketball: Germany vs. Francebacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$128
All 17 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 4, 2024, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$57.4
Trump posts 30-39 times on X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2024, EDT+38.9%+$39.2
Trump posts 20-29 times on X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2024, EDT+525%+$420
Will Trump tweet 10 or more times this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2024, EDT+28.2%+$33
Will Trump post 31-35 times this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$33.1
Will Trump post 11-15 times this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$72
Will Trump post 50 or more times this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump post 36-40 times this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$13.68
Will Trump post 26-30 times this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$22.8
All 9 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2024, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+50.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 10, 2024, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick40cpaid+155.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2025, EST+177.8%+$64
Suns vs. 76ersbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+132.6%+$57
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 19, 2024, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+162.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran military response by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2024, EDT+47%+$47.04
Iran military response by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$33
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scottie Scheffler win the British Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2024, EDT+26.6%+$21
Will another golfer win the British Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$126
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$180.05
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$23.49
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+193.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2024 July hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT+193.1%+$184.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will India win the ICC T20 Cricket World Cup backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2024, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dayton Flyers vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblersbacked Dayton Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+51.5%+$17
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Florida Panthers win the 2024 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2024, EDT+29.9%+$5.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 7, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$116.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 12, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dodgers vs. Padres Series Winnerbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$63.08
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.