Premier League · resolved market
Will Netherlands win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x901b30973a9a83fdc087d20f95a15ac80d5105a7f764f371ea53a10f5d23e11b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51f7…f874backed Yes | 29c | 2,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 29c | 865.13$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.89 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed No | 73c | 640.3$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17c1…a606backed No | 72c | 506.32$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…4b3fbacked No | 73c | 304.81$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 24c | 227.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d0…b6abbacked Yes | 30c | 168$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed No | 72c | 151.53$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1666…ba7bbacked Yes | 33c | 150.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 25c | 146.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 122.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf70…55ccbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…d105backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…ff04backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…1487backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 25c | 99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b4…09a3backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf22…d46ebacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Yes | 29c | 79.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc82…76b5backed Yes | 27c | 77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…11a0backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…63b4backed Yes | 30c | 58.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…ba91backed Yes | 35c | 56.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…eca6backed No | 72c | 55.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3643…2cf5backed Yes | 28c | 54.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…4e0ebacked Yes | 29c | 45.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 68c | 42.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa745…29cfbacked Yes | 29c | 39.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4485…8ee2backed No | 75c | 37.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…dda7backed Yes | 29c | 35.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac2…112cbacked No | 74c | 35.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4c…0168backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +209.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…0d22backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…9262backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…a43fbacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netherlands win?this page
- Will France win?No won
- Will the match be a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.