Olympics · resolved market
Will the USA win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ab275841ef87e185ae28c228c85a7a58028f3cacb3f1e17989dfdd5c9b4f959
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 75c | 5,000$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 24c | 4,803$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 19c | 2,782$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.17 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…ce9dbacked No | 22c | 2,231$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.77 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 20c | 1,437$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.2 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked No | 26c | 1,100$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc04b…1424backed No | 22c | 999.98$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed No | 20c | 720.39$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.38 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1206backed Yes | 78c | 563$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…7b53backed Yes | 79c | 520$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 79c | 505.52$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.09 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed Yes | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 25c | 445$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…552fbacked No | 23c | 418.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed No | 26c | 389.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…204fbacked Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 20c | 264.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed No | 19c | 230.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed Yes | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…391ebacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…1332backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 41cpaid | +233.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…165cbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…50b9backed Yes | 78c | 82.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133d…58e8backed Yes | 80c | 67.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed No | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…45e0backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…79c0backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf51…a037backed Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes | 76c | 23.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…6012backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…3569backed Yes | 80c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0526…df50backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf407…1243backed Yes | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a62…bc7abacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the USA win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay?this page
- Will France win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay?No won
- Will Great Britain win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay?No won
- Will Jamaica win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.