Olympics · resolved market
Will Rai Benjamin (USA) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff3a934c578e6a9c7307baef3556996d4a2744c3fe5d31a55fcef2376b0cdfd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8297…1708backed No | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked No | 6c | 5,332$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.92 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 60c | 1,318$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 66c | 1,047$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133d…58e8backed Yes | 65c | 772.31$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 34c | 535.74$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.73 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…6333backed Yes | 60c | 490$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0786backed Yes | 66c | 381.26$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 65c | 331$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 60c | 315.64$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff6…0dcbbacked Yes | 66c | 303.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked No | 50c | 298.15$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.08 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc20e…f344backed No | 39c | 257.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Yes | 63c | 233.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +176.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 36c | 212.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 55c | 190$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ac…e43dbacked Yes | 66c | 163.64$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…9661backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 66c | 151.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 59c | 142.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…642abacked No | 47c | 141.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf8…fb62backed No | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…552fbacked No | 39c | 123.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Yes | 62c | 114.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked No | 39c | 114$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 52c | 106.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 40c | 105.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ca…f9e6backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03da…7907backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed No | 36c | 99.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa18b…3aedbacked Yes | 56c | 95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…3e97backed No | 36c | 90.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 15cpaid | +215.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…da98backed Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5363…f46bbacked Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf51…a037backed Yes | 65c | 72.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…9498backed Yes | 64c | 72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 64c | 65.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…8ae2backed No | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf838…1509backed Yes | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968e…3303backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…961bbacked Yes | 62c | 35.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…a12ebacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1692…5b09backed Yes | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…3f21backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…50b9backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…498dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rai Benjamin (USA) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?this page
- Will Alison dos Santos (BRA) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?No won
- Will Karsten Warholm (NOR) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?No won
- Will Kyron McMaster (IVB) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?No won
- Will another athlete win Gold in 400m Hurdles?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.