Olympics · resolved market
Will Karsten Warholm (NOR) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89203a804cae62a13729175a30c234df64026981846688339d1b7eb45aeecf11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked Yes | 1c | 15,992$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.92 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…1708backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 35c | 10,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…165cbacked No | 65c | 8,303$5,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,906.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 36c | 4,001$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.97 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 34c | 3,147$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 67c | 2,588$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed No | 64c | 2,302$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.21 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 65c | 1,783$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.21 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc04b…1424backed Yes | 36c | 773.02$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff6…0dcbbacked Yes | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d96…91f6backed Yes | 35c | 572.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 71c | 424.55$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.45 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…eccabacked Yes | 44c | 406.84$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca63…5422backed Yes | 63c | 226.98$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ca…f9e6backed Yes | 34c | 199.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…07f7backed Yes | 55c | 181.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -68%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked Yes | 47c | 157.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5363…f46bbacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 50c | 140.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 47c | 125.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 35c | 123.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed No | 65c | 104$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3a…1ab8backed Yes | 36c | 101.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…642abacked Yes | 65c | 101.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a6…38c0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…391ebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…d77dbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf8…fb62backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes | 33c | 97.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…ba70backed Yes | 25c | 94.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa950…62f2backed Yes | 37c | 91.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed No | 52c | 89.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…4427backed Yes | 49c | 81.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Yes | 34c | 69.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…d40dbacked Yes | 37c | 62.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…189dbacked No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…16f2backed Yes | 35c | 57.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…793cbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb99…99ccbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a3…d74fbacked Yes | 61c | 49.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…6628backed No | 65c | 49.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc0…cc96backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc6…0634backed Yes | 35c | 39.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…9328backed No | 65c | 38.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff5…3dfdbacked Yes | 68c | 29.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbe…5f66backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karsten Warholm (NOR) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?this page
- Will Alison dos Santos (BRA) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?No won
- Will Kyron McMaster (IVB) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?No won
- Will Rai Benjamin (USA) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?Yes won
- Will another athlete win Gold in 400m Hurdles?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.