TailMyPicks
Market

Olympics · resolved market

Olympic Men’s Basketball: Germany vs. Serbia

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Serbiaof Germany, Serbia
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,162
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,394

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,162 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1508…01bdbacked Serbia58c22,139$12,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,316.22425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-56.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Germany42c14,330$5,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,998.284245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Germany42c10,005$4,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,202.09666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+67.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed Germany33c7,051$2,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,355.51030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Serbia57c5,461$3,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,358.491346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+117.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Germany45c3,347$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Serbia55c3,333$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.851526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Germany10c3,254$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.2313419.4%26 W · 108 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Germany46c2,754$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.97850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f156backed Germany19c2,529$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x741e…2f80backed Germany44c2,161$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.2930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Serbia56c2,126$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+66.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e9…a5afbacked Serbia73c2,072$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.18944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Serbia60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf303…64f5backed Germany25c1,916$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Germany8c1,910$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9839.6%8 W · 75 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0997…c238backed Serbia68c1,443$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.07633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02cb…ae38backed Serbia69c1,340$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.071258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Germany7c1,334$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.96812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-69.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77cf…0e71backed Germany44c1,300$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Germany45c1,292$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.331241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0328…d834backed Germany34c1,165$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Germany11c1,128$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.863522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Serbia56c1,000$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4381717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-54.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25c0…cfc7backed Serbia69c760$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb999…8441backed Serbia55c671.18$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Germany45c555$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.751513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93c8…bbb7backed Germany33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcede…f2f6backed Germany45c500$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2271910.5%2 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-83.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd5be…8728backed Germany43c466.42$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc711…d3c6backed Germany43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed Serbia55c370$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6c…60e7backed Germany25c360.81$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6727…db84backed Germany41c314.73$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.431050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8016…9894backed Serbia57c300$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+50.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Serbia55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1351346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91ea…be3ebacked Germany6c294.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.37714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2387…2a96backed Serbia72c276.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.711741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-35.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa3c6…b942backed Germany10c268.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.963253.1%17 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+46.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6fe3…e007backed Serbia55c259.64$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5554…498dbacked Germany39c255.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcab1…b2b1backed Germany24c212.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Germany42c204.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.053231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Serbia56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1820…e3f7backed Germany18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+53.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Germany44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b1…a12ebacked Germany11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa357…d47cbacked Germany30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd57…e1edbacked Serbia54c156.44$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba19…0f73backed Germany46c152.15$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c81…1a5cbacked Germany43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-79.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9cc…29b3backed Germany23c112.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbee…dcf4backed Serbia55c100.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.041729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccce…7a04backed Germany18c97.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.85911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70cf…5b3fbacked Serbia55c90.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cbe…5f66backed Serbia56c90$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.61250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf339…e010backed Serbia56c89.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.31752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ccf…7afbbacked Serbia56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-33.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfda…4fe6backed Germany40c86.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6740%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d7b…d15ebacked Serbia60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.333100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0437…e7e7backed Serbia56c82.14$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc501…7dd5backed Germany20c75.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…9629backed Serbia55c75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3633…054ebacked Serbia55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff9c…2c98backed Germany45c66.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x486b…9f23backed Serbia58c60.18$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.18825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+100.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7794…8df9backed Serbia56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.57250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…a1f9backed Serbia56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c3c…62ebbacked Serbia58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba3f…8b64backed Serbia55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51758.8%10 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…1095backed Germany45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5574…6424backed Germany40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd465…0ab4backed Germany32c47.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe016…642abacked Serbia54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1e7…87d1backed Germany45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1f5…8c66backed Serbia69c39.66$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.27475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa779…5772backed Serbia49c39.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b50…87fbbacked Germany51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+82.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd094…6adabacked Serbia55c35.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b55…02f8backed Germany41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.34843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef3e…eff5backed Serbia54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f33…f9d6backed Serbia58c28.12$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea0b…1f5bbacked Serbia63c24.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.05560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc3c…e38bbacked Serbia58c24.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.14862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299b…3941backed Serbia55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf407…1243backed Serbia56c18.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.