TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3a6c…60e7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
30
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 53 out of 100; worst Champions League at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2025, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester City wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$273.39
Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT+233.3%+$213.5
Will Bournemouth beat Southampton?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2024, EDT+53.8%+$26.25
Will Manchester United vs. Tottenham end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
Will Tottenham beat Manchester United?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT+212.5%+$68
Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$52
Will Manchester City beat Arsenal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$30.81
Will Tottenham beat Brentford?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2024, EDT+58.7%+$18.5
Will Tottenham vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$13.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Oct 2, 2024, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Champions League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2024, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Berachain airdrop in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+300%+$75
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Sep 22, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tennessee beat Oklahoma by 7 or more points?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT+92.3%+$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+45.9%+$68.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$15.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2024 September hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$189.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Celticsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$31
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$31.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.