Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Tottenham end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfb4bbb375f70c513287410df3971cfd814fb789fefe5f4fe0af2e243cbfa73c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b94…ce9dbacked Yes | 26c | 6,830$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 74c | 3,917$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.32 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 74c | 2,364$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.43 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f89…3e08backed Yes | 27c | 1,898$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…ee7bbacked No | 76c | 1,898$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba9…87edbacked No | 76c | 1,129$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…8eefbacked Yes | 26c | 1,042$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…10d5backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 24c | 986.35$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.19 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 75c | 944.62$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…219cbacked Yes | 27c | 599.84$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…d3a7backed No | 76c | 599.84$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0efe…6074backed Yes | 26c | 557.69$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d6…e639backed No | 75c | 532.2$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 25c | 440$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…998dbacked Yes | 27c | 425.93$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7119…7132backed Yes | 27c | 371.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 24c | 355.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 73c | 294.14$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca2…6b1dbacked Yes | 25c | 280$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…83e5backed Yes | 26c | 203.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…44afbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -14.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 8c | 141$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +170.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…f634backed Yes | 13c | 121.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 25c | 117.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…a6d5backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…1402backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed No | 73c | 97.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…bc53backed No | 79c | 96.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8d…b65bbacked Yes | 26c | 96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 23c | 92.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 24c | 92.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed No | 76c | 92.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…7d5abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7d…96a1backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…9cd7backed Yes | 25c | 79.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…ca57backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…9aecbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…5316backed Yes | 25c | 69.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb6…df1cbacked No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…60e7backed Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…3b7abacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…2dcfbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…5cd4backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…b2c2backed No | 76c | 35.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…93c4backed No | 76c | 26.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…f366backed No | 76c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Tottenham end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester United beat Tottenham?No won
- Will Tottenham beat Manchester United?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.