TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,777,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,369,731

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,777,360 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 614 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd8d1…599dbacked Yes6c375,041$24,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,145.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23f8…453dbacked Yes9c158,133$14,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,605.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf873…7e9ebacked Yes14c120,298$17,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,239.8780%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5b…df8dbacked Yes14c107,519$14,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,900.4770%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a50…1248backed Yes14c101,284$14,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,300.21812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes10c94,046$9,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,097.236028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d9d…a6d7backed Yes13c87,013$11,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,128.63616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-76%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed Yes10c84,831$8,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,183.24110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes12c81,197$9,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,998.3917225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes13c80,062$10,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,063.39316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd28…0d50backed Yes16c76,420$12,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,356.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes16c73,364$11,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,4402429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes1c73,169$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.51156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-80.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e70…2d92backed Yes10c68,938$6,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,844.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes13c66,593$8,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,946.464542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9716…481fbacked Yes13c62,675$8,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,232.3660%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d1…1a60backed Yes9c61,463$5,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,721.1290%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes5c60,000$2,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,780633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked Yes15c58,865$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0001353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes15c56,711$8,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,606.49175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c51,610$6,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,057.396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Yes13c50,000$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5001546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes13c46,684$5,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,850.9110452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bd…e78cbacked Yes15c42,368$6,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,520.4540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes14c39,183$5,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,307.05128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes14c38,225$5,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,433.544630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes16c35,101$5,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,461.99170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3206…da51backed Yes13c34,535$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2228…7eafbacked Yes15c31,957$4,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,856.3650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb137…66c8backed Yes12c30,850$3,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,847.7350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71d9…dd76backed Yes15c30,445$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc411…caa7backed Yes8c30,158$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.091711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-73.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6335…15e1backed Yes17c29,830$4,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,93040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes15c29,116$4,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,293.565530.9%17 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef13…bab1backed Yes12c28,999$3,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,582.9470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes11c27,651$3,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,172.381711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7d…7c8fbacked Yes16c26,014$4,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,133.7150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8055…44c4backed Yes12c25,622$3,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,073.441915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea4a…b565backed Yes11c25,476$2,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,755.98100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c0f…f4e1backed Yes8c24,358$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,062.0860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73c7…b175backed Yes10c21,334$2,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,172.07520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0be8…07a7backed Yes13c20,084$2,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,556.5470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c21…d6bfbacked Yes13c20,000$2,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,647.141625%4 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes17c19,969$3,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,307.27147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes15c19,627$2,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,909.971414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-77.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed Yes15c19,173$2,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,821.261118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4814…1968backed Yes13c19,029$2,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,458.09160%0 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes7c19,027$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.1313540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a01…9e64backed Yes2c18,867$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.6520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72e7…dc57backed Yes11c18,845$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0441741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x730b…9055backed Yes10c18,580$1,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.4470%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x774c…319ebacked Yes16c18,540$2,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,936.15100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbdd…f191backed Yes14c18,357$2,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.9470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes14c18,058$2,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,590.935038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bae…bdf5backed Yes11c17,652$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf596…8c31backed Yes14c17,610$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,479.811020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-53.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes11c17,545$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe1…624abacked Yes11c17,523$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.1840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0120…b177backed Yes6c17,500$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97950%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b6…313dbacked Yes9c17,255$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes14c16,512$2,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,281.447133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ad9…4760backed Yes11c16,237$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.92812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-84.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes12c15,583$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,884.11358.6%3 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e9…8b44backed Yes9c15,449$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.68425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfb…df99backed Yes15c15,307$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,303.87120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2301…e6d9backed Yes13c15,226$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc4…18ecbacked Yes13c15,208$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915.5590%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d97…080ebacked Yes12c15,114$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76680%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x760e…fa03backed Yes13c15,010$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes16c15,000$2,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,421.282015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes3c14,950$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.958921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes13c14,679$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,861.482010%2 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-76.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes10c14,532$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.61100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2694…0b98backed Yes12c14,367$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeab…3516backed Yes15c14,318$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,185.2150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea9a…5563backed Yes10c14,189$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.1580%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes13c13,967$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.53175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab8c…3e34backed Yes11c13,800$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580.81120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55a4…774ebacked Yes11c13,141$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38f8…33cfbacked Yes15c12,699$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.5350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0807…c05bbacked Yes12c12,571$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes0c12,300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.33859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes14c12,000$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.755318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes14c11,945$1,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,712.912343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f6c…95c6backed Yes14c11,429$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.63812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588e…6d72backed Yes13c11,351$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00b4…75dbbacked Yes10c11,272$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.991163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes14c11,103$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.118038.8%31 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77fc…b5ffbacked Yes14c11,051$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes9c11,000$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.58219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb90…7d98backed Yes15c10,370$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3988…7515backed Yes12c10,160$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.47119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c50…4f6ebacked Yes17c10,015$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,687.890%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b50…43e8backed Yes13c10,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3007354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3555…ece4backed Yes13c10,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea0c…d854backed Yes11c9,899$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.55120%0 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2365…8eb9backed Yes16c9,849$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580.260%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c72…ee4cbacked Yes13c9,812$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-62.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e3…1a7bbacked Yes10c9,741$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.