TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,040,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,102,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,040,360 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 483 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes8c451,792$36,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,178.29110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes6c294,634$16,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,672.773212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes0c150,082$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.643859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc0…fb02backed Yes7c118,294$8,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,280.5970%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes6c91,200$5,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5741711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes9c90,826$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0001127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes7c82,365$5,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,487.992015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes3c76,750$2,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,387.53435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+57.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44a9…7b5bbacked Yes6c71,639$4,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,298.3470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes6c60,186$3,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,613.666028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a21…ac9cbacked Yes7c46,737$3,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,271.62560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8b6…b0cabacked Yes5c45,989$2,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.37728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x459f…7444backed Yes6c45,551$2,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,862.57100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb152…8315backed Yes7c40,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8001010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes7c39,221$2,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,653.275641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes6c36,551$2,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,263.223234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes7c34,782$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.721323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes6c32,882$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.3813540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed39…7c4ebacked Yes7c32,809$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,258.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d9…dd76backed Yes8c32,476$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,750100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0377…810ebacked Yes2c30,508$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4932516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes6c29,000$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf625…aeb8backed Yes8c25,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd18f…681ebacked Yes7c23,554$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.5911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-55.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x830b…3975backed Yes9c23,229$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes8c22,857$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8002516%4 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfb…df99backed Yes7c22,285$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.64120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76d0…c092backed Yes7c21,657$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.46728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f3…91a0backed Yes7c21,429$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc72b…3756backed Yes8c21,100$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6882941.4%12 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+2.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf8b…6ffebacked Yes9c20,611$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes6c20,277$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.85100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9623…8cdfbacked Yes8c20,000$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes7c20,000$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.55038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f81…968dbacked Yes10c19,823$1,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,918540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe179…1edebacked Yes1c19,556$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8055…44c4backed Yes7c18,289$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.211915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecd6…c8bbbacked Yes0c16,980$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b10…e9f8backed Yes0c16,620$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4c4…504bbacked Yes0c16,430$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3988…7515backed Yes8c16,414$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.75119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd08…ef3bbacked Yes6c16,020$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes7c15,267$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.092227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf135…2833backed Yes0c15,110$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c15,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf46e…5d0abacked Yes7c15,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9c…5ae3backed Yes0c14,960$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe9…8c31backed Yes11c14,843$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.2370%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x004d…62acbacked Yes0c14,730$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eb0…ebeabacked Yes8c13,645$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+218.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x268c…ed33backed Yes7c13,623$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.28137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-65.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes8c13,306$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9478…1ffcbacked Yes0c12,820$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+65.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd6d…115abacked Yes0c12,800$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b94…8183backed Yes7c12,323$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.071838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb87…3bdbbacked Yes7c12,239$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.190%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e4d…6cf6backed Yes9c11,637$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes6c11,500$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73037844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f62…02efbacked Yes7c11,500$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Yes9c11,132$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes8c11,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8401216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes4c10,913$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.1910749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x72f6…a5b5backed Yes8c10,792$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-58.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf559…3701backed Yes0c10,640$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f6c…95c6backed Yes8c10,625$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2880…b493backed Yes8c10,570$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.431010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-67.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f2d…104ebacked Yes0c10,320$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b1b…02e0backed Yes3c10,272$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.7490%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x008f…f8b3backed Yes1c10,252$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x878c…c985backed Yes2c10,174$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.16128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc621…19c9backed Yes7c10,020$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes8c10,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes8c10,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes7c9,997$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.82445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes7c9,196$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.727639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes7c9,000$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.55318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfddf…8324backed Yes7c8,894$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.4580%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes5c8,655$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.752516%4 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x536f…d9f9backed Yes8c8,600$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.03714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes6c8,375$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.758921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0831…1a7ebacked Yes9c8,308$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55a6…3899backed Yes7c8,250$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.5450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+69.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4433…fc19backed Yes7c8,115$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.63425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e63…81b3backed Yes7c8,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d5…4699backed Yes6c7,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+84.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x286e…e2c1backed Yes11c7,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed2…e914backed Yes8c7,400$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe215…c8afbacked Yes7c7,374$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2a…e5febacked Yes2c7,250$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5e…7004backed Yes7c7,178$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.911816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8c6…9211backed Yes7c7,150$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-80.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf84…703cbacked Yes7c7,143$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ca…9069backed Yes7c7,143$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500120%0 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb6d…ab88backed Yes7c7,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-32.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes6c7,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4204143.9%18 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+88.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1063…e469backed Yes7c6,864$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.81911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7652…9c2abacked Yes7c6,680$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.24812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff2b…0c88backed Yes7c6,676$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.283327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01f4…e470backed Yes1c6,513$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c70…e76dbacked Yes7c6,288$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.