Us Politics · resolved market
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff5c1e73e31ad495136fcafce90710a3a1771a96f07116db60aeaae095c0ec29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,016,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,206,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,016,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 4c | 426,344$15,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,716 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…5e8fbacked Yes | 0c | 395,572$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,898.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…313dbacked Yes | 3c | 393,073$10,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,241.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bb…a4c5backed Yes | 4c | 225,027$8,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,716.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes | 3c | 194,222$5,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,378.76 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…1a7bbacked Yes | 2c | 138,898$3,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,441.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936c…927abacked Yes | 3c | 128,423$4,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,313.88 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…ae10backed Yes | 3c | 124,784$3,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,822.86 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 4c | 111,940$4,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,017.91 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…5fd9backed Yes | 3c | 110,454$2,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,908.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0537backed Yes | 3c | 107,161$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…637cbacked Yes | 3c | 86,807$2,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,930.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 4c | 83,223$3,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,219.74 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0f…f4e1backed Yes | 2c | 75,020$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a9…7b5bbacked Yes | 6c | 68,765$3,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,812.68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 6c | 63,269$3,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,485.54 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 52,613$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.11 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f93…e3aebacked Yes | 4c | 52,342$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,046.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 3c | 45,072$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.78 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…bab1backed Yes | 3c | 40,779$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4814…1968backed Yes | 3c | 40,345$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.51 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4750backed Yes | 3c | 40,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 39,511$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,986.5 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…624abacked Yes | 4c | 39,415$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…39b9backed Yes | 6c | 35,528$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089.33 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes | 4c | 34,866$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.93 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 2c | 33,661$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.75 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 3c | 32,048$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.74 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…8553backed Yes | 1c | 26,982$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19a5…84bcbacked Yes | 5c | 26,798$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 3c | 20,880$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.42 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 20,329$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.85 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a20…c0bcbacked Yes | 5c | 20,291$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.33 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes | 2c | 18,007$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -82%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc4…18ecbacked Yes | 3c | 17,262$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…271cbacked Yes | 4c | 16,887$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…c0a4backed Yes | 3c | 15,777$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…0286backed Yes | 2c | 15,636$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…080ebacked Yes | 4c | 15,000$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…5563backed Yes | 2c | 14,446$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…ed07backed Yes | 3c | 13,205$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 3c | 12,862$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.95 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa68e…2cf8backed Yes | 2c | 11,671$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 5c | 11,509$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.18 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e3…2708backed Yes | 3c | 11,264$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 6c | 10,970$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.06 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb336…4e71backed Yes | 2c | 10,300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.7 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe565…0401backed Yes | 3c | 10,130$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c1…50e1backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…50d9backed Yes | 3c | 9,726$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.79 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 5c | 9,544$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.42 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 8,195$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.32 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…c208backed Yes | 6c | 8,000$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…3a88backed Yes | 5c | 6,803$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730b…9055backed Yes | 3c | 6,774$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 6c | 6,588$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.02 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 5c | 6,383$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…319ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,074$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 4c | 6,000$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 2c | 5,978$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.24 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…0743backed Yes | 5c | 5,775$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766b…6f27backed Yes | 2c | 5,470$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.47 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da6…867fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,333$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…f87bbacked Yes | 5c | 5,325$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd442…93e5backed Yes | 4c | 5,310$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…9cf4backed Yes | 2c | 5,239$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd828…519ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,122$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…a47fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96cc…db22backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f2…146ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,914$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…191cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,734$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,637$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.37 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes | 5c | 4,573$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…88bebacked Yes | 3c | 4,429$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b50…825cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,406$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…2f0ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,237$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed Yes | 6c | 4,093$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…9a32backed Yes | 4c | 4,057$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…bc10backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…7444backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…a6d7backed Yes | 1c | 3,617$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d9…4039backed Yes | 3c | 3,571$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…2f42backed Yes | 3c | 3,550$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…084cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 5c | 3,500$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…49e2backed Yes | 6c | 3,287$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3615…b069backed Yes | 3c | 3,177$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…5986backed Yes | 2c | 3,158$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 7c | 3,147$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.64 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd889…4febbacked Yes | 4c | 3,139$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…ccbfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,139$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da4…e9fabacked Yes | 2c | 3,068$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…575fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,067$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4b…5e45backed Yes | 1c | 3,050$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…17e8backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f11…4467backed Yes | 5c | 2,853$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e3…b21fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,801$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.91 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa733…0e46backed Yes | 3c | 2,756$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 8cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+this page
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104Yes won
- Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.