TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,016,787
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,206,257

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,016,787 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd535…fa67backed Yes4c426,344$15,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,7164630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c42…5e8fbacked Yes0c395,572$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66b6…313dbacked Yes3c393,073$10,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,241.4160%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bb…a4c5backed Yes4c225,027$8,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,716.85714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes3c194,222$5,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,378.761816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35e3…1a7bbacked Yes2c138,898$3,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,441.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x936c…927abacked Yes3c128,423$4,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,313.8890%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed Yes3c124,784$3,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,822.86110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74d1…1a60backed Yes4c111,940$4,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,017.9190%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48e2…5fd9backed Yes3c110,454$2,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,908.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a2…0537backed Yes3c107,161$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd99…637cbacked Yes3c86,807$2,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,930.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes4c83,223$3,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,219.741711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c0f…f4e1backed Yes2c75,020$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.4160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a9…7b5bbacked Yes6c68,765$3,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,812.6870%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes6c63,269$3,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,485.542020%4 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes3c52,613$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.1116725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f93…e3aebacked Yes4c52,342$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,046.1840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes3c45,072$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.783132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef13…bab1backed Yes3c40,779$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.7870%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4814…1968backed Yes3c40,345$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.51160%0 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8714…4750backed Yes3c40,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes5c39,511$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.517225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe1…624abacked Yes4c39,415$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe006…39b9backed Yes6c35,528$2,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.33110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes4c34,866$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.93120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes2c33,661$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.756021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes3c32,048$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.746028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9244…8553backed Yes1c26,982$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.751145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+104.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19a5…84bcbacked Yes5c26,798$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes3c20,880$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.42316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c20,329$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.8596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a20…c0bcbacked Yes5c20,291$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.33137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes2c18,007$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.33911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-82%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc4…18ecbacked Yes3c17,262$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.8390%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…271cbacked Yes4c16,887$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a54…c0a4backed Yes3c15,777$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…0286backed Yes2c15,636$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d97…080ebacked Yes4c15,000$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61580%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea9a…5563backed Yes2c14,446$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.5480%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa09c…ed07backed Yes3c13,205$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40270%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes3c12,862$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.95175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa68e…2cf8backed Yes2c11,671$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes5c11,509$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.1813540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e3…2708backed Yes3c11,264$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes6c10,970$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.067638.2%29 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb336…4e71backed Yes2c10,300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.7147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe565…0401backed Yes3c10,130$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.9650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes3c10,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95c1…50e1backed Yes1c10,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4b1…50d9backed Yes3c9,726$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.7980%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes5c9,544$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.42234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c8,195$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.322847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f2…c208backed Yes6c8,000$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.88837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7831…3a88backed Yes5c6,803$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x730b…9055backed Yes3c6,774$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes6c6,588$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.025530.9%17 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes5c6,383$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3273218.8%6 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x774c…319ebacked Yes4c6,074$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.55100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes4c6,000$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.55318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Yes2c5,978$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.244318.6%8 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…0743backed Yes5c5,775$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x766b…6f27backed Yes2c5,470$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4790%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2da6…867fbacked Yes6c5,333$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+166.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0838…f87bbacked Yes5c5,325$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd442…93e5backed Yes4c5,310$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f2…9cf4backed Yes2c5,239$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd828…519ebacked Yes1c5,122$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0491…a47fbacked Yes5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96cc…db22backed Yes2c5,000$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39f2…146ebacked Yes3c4,914$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.481618.8%3 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d56…191cbacked Yes4c4,734$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-80.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes2c4,637$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.37140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes5c4,573$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.371040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4113…88bebacked Yes3c4,429$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-55.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b50…825cbacked Yes2c4,406$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d7d…2f0ebacked Yes6c4,237$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5135…8839backed Yes6c4,093$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.39616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-64.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf815…9a32backed Yes4c4,057$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15090%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x969a…bc10backed Yes5c4,000$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18860%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x459f…7444backed Yes5c4,000$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.1100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9d…a6d7backed Yes1c3,617$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-76%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d9…4039backed Yes3c3,571$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd28e…2f42backed Yes3c3,550$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0450%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f68…084cbacked Yes4c3,500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes5c3,500$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1714542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8be4…49e2backed Yes6c3,287$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3615…b069backed Yes3c3,177$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x502d…5986backed Yes2c3,158$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes7c3,147$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.64175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd889…4febbacked Yes4c3,139$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.01812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eae…ccbfbacked Yes2c3,139$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da4…e9fabacked Yes2c3,068$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf0d…575fbacked Yes3c3,067$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4b…5e45backed Yes1c3,050$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.590%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x308a…17e8backed Yes3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-73.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes2c3,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.513514.3%5 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f11…4467backed Yes5c2,853$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e3…b21fbacked Yes6c2,801$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.91100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa733…0e46backed Yes3c2,756$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.71922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick8cpaid+74.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.