TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,813,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,272,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,813,697 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 511 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7327…151abacked Yes4c230,041$9,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,772.823212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes7c178,994$11,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,966.34170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes4c136,855$5,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,017.678921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb5b…df8dbacked Yes6c131,955$7,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,423.1470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes5c106,546$5,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,228.527041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes4c94,051$4,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,190.776028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes5c92,867$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,480.2214742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes7c92,264$6,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,129.721127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes5c91,986$4,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,172.5310452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes6c91,655$5,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,593.1717225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0120…b177backed Yes2c83,338$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ae…a7fdbacked Yes6c83,333$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7899…af3abacked Yes6c77,353$4,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,977.3660%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc0…fb02backed Yes4c75,146$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,950.2270%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes5c73,136$3,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,665.56316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3206…da51backed Yes6c70,218$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes0c68,984$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.073859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes6c60,004$3,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,517.96110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77fc…b5ffbacked Yes5c59,925$3,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,130.3370%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x459f…7444backed Yes5c54,478$2,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,593.41100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe9…8c31backed Yes5c53,258$2,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,790.9170%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9716…481fbacked Yes5c52,321$2,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,609.4460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7011…8c6cbacked Yes4c51,059$2,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,220.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c49,722$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300.3396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a9…7b5bbacked Yes7c46,410$3,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,248.7170%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes5c44,939$2,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,186.081711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5758…da7bbacked Yes5c43,405$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,165.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes5c43,032$2,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,175.52175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed Yes3c40,000$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.07110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea0c…d854backed Yes5c39,299$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.98120%0 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71d9…dd76backed Yes7c37,124$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc80c…70d1backed Yes1c34,025$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes1c33,466$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.68156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-80.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc4…18ecbacked Yes5c32,156$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.1590%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd18f…681ebacked Yes5c31,809$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,605.78911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-55.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8055…44c4backed Yes5c30,893$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.371915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes9c30,000$2,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,689.82015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9cfb…df99backed Yes5c29,559$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.7120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe006…39b9backed Yes6c29,274$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.88110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8292…84a1backed Yes3c28,876$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.9170%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4814…1968backed Yes5c28,247$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.31160%0 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d4…7930backed Yes4c27,795$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes8c26,775$2,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.317133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea4a…b565backed Yes5c26,606$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.82100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc928…e2f6backed Yes4c25,882$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.0690%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes5c25,148$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.81147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x535e…de43backed Yes5c25,000$1,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344.8650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9c…2759backed Yes5c23,784$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38f8…33cfbacked Yes7c23,550$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.7350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes4c21,543$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.142227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1897…f1cfbacked Yes5c21,427$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbdd…f191backed Yes6c20,483$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19170%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes8c20,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5077…5ba3backed Yes5c20,000$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f29…d894backed Yes0c19,670$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8435…df2cbacked Yes4c19,445$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.0850%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84e9…e2ecbacked Yes5c19,202$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x878c…c985backed Yes1c18,993$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.84128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x268c…ed33backed Yes4c18,763$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-65.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xece9…59aebacked Yes5c18,291$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c42…5e8fbacked Yes5c18,104$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes6c18,090$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.52358.6%3 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes4c18,000$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.752429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0be8…07a7backed Yes5c17,389$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec1…467abacked Yes6c17,180$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.321323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe8…2cbabacked Yes5c16,911$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b14…f7c9backed Yes0c16,890$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8bb…7b82backed Yes0c16,720$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2076…ccfebacked Yes6c16,369$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes2c16,332$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.525318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e0…4655backed Yes5c15,969$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes6c15,951$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.69175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b28…9edabacked Yes0c15,810$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes5c15,457$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.8313540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3988…7515backed Yes5c15,133$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.59119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d97…080ebacked Yes5c15,000$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe215…c8afbacked Yes4c15,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.7360%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38ed…46e4backed Yes0c14,940$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6335…15e1backed Yes7c14,364$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb367…3f7cbacked Yes7c14,000$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97890%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes5c13,973$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.441533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-54.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes6c13,774$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.115038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1592…1e14backed Yes0c13,400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf172…7e24backed Yes5c13,277$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7d…7c8fbacked Yes4c13,110$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.6250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a1…4dedbacked Yes0c13,090$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0067…ed88backed Yes5c13,053$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes5c13,000$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.8137844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf873…7e9ebacked Yes5c12,986$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.7380%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f6c…95c6backed Yes6c12,500$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.26812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes4c12,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb363…4c60backed Yes9c12,381$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.8950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c6…9211backed Yes5c12,300$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.49714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-80.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62e3…b21fbacked Yes6c11,690$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.58100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e5…cb71backed Yes7c11,475$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.4850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87fa…4c2bbacked Yes0c11,250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes5c11,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5702010%2 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-76.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0711…39b3backed Yes5c10,988$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.2550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b9e…4a64backed Yes6c10,978$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74d1…1a60backed Yes4c10,874$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.5890%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.