Us Politics · resolved market
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe3afc95f538c106696a2b76a1eb6e2191b622b224ae9d888343ade752c634f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,813,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,272,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,813,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 511 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 4c | 230,041$9,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,772.82 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 7c | 178,994$11,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,966.34 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 136,855$5,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,017.67 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…df8dbacked Yes | 6c | 131,955$7,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,423.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 5c | 106,546$5,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,228.52 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 4c | 94,051$4,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,190.77 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 5c | 92,867$4,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,480.22 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 7c | 92,264$6,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,129.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 5c | 91,986$4,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,172.53 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 6c | 91,655$5,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,593.17 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0120…b177backed Yes | 2c | 83,338$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…a7fdbacked Yes | 6c | 83,333$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7899…af3abacked Yes | 6c | 77,353$4,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,977.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc0…fb02backed Yes | 4c | 75,146$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 5c | 73,136$3,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,665.56 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3206…da51backed Yes | 6c | 70,218$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 0c | 68,984$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.07 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes | 6c | 60,004$3,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,517.96 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…b5ffbacked Yes | 5c | 59,925$3,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,130.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…7444backed Yes | 5c | 54,478$2,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,593.41 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…8c31backed Yes | 5c | 53,258$2,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,790.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…481fbacked Yes | 5c | 52,321$2,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,609.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…8c6cbacked Yes | 4c | 51,059$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 49,722$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300.33 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a9…7b5bbacked Yes | 7c | 46,410$3,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,248.71 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 5c | 44,939$2,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,186.08 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5758…da7bbacked Yes | 5c | 43,405$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 5c | 43,032$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.52 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…ae10backed Yes | 3c | 40,000$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.07 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…d854backed Yes | 5c | 39,299$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.98 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…dd76backed Yes | 7c | 37,124$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80c…70d1backed Yes | 1c | 34,025$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes | 1c | 33,466$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.68 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc4…18ecbacked Yes | 5c | 32,156$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…681ebacked Yes | 5c | 31,809$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8055…44c4backed Yes | 5c | 30,893$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.37 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 9c | 30,000$2,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,689.8 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…df99backed Yes | 5c | 29,559$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.7 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…39b9backed Yes | 6c | 29,274$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.88 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…84a1backed Yes | 3c | 28,876$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4814…1968backed Yes | 5c | 28,247$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.31 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d4…7930backed Yes | 4c | 27,795$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 8c | 26,775$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.31 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…b565backed Yes | 5c | 26,606$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.82 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc928…e2f6backed Yes | 4c | 25,882$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 5c | 25,148$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.81 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…de43backed Yes | 5c | 25,000$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…2759backed Yes | 5c | 23,784$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…33cfbacked Yes | 7c | 23,550$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 4c | 21,543$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.14 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…f1cfbacked Yes | 5c | 21,427$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdd…f191backed Yes | 6c | 20,483$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes | 8c | 20,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…5ba3backed Yes | 5c | 20,000$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f29…d894backed Yes | 0c | 19,670$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8435…df2cbacked Yes | 4c | 19,445$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e9…e2ecbacked Yes | 5c | 19,202$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c985backed Yes | 1c | 18,993$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.84 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…ed33backed Yes | 4c | 18,763$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece9…59aebacked Yes | 5c | 18,291$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…5e8fbacked Yes | 5c | 18,104$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 6c | 18,090$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.52 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 4c | 18,000$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.75 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be8…07a7backed Yes | 5c | 17,389$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…467abacked Yes | 6c | 17,180$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…2cbabacked Yes | 5c | 16,911$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…f7c9backed Yes | 0c | 16,890$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…7b82backed Yes | 0c | 16,720$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…ccfebacked Yes | 6c | 16,369$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 2c | 16,332$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.52 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…4655backed Yes | 5c | 15,969$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 6c | 15,951$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.69 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b28…9edabacked Yes | 0c | 15,810$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 5c | 15,457$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.83 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3988…7515backed Yes | 5c | 15,133$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.59 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…080ebacked Yes | 5c | 15,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…c8afbacked Yes | 4c | 15,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ed…46e4backed Yes | 0c | 14,940$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…15e1backed Yes | 7c | 14,364$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb367…3f7cbacked Yes | 7c | 14,000$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 5c | 13,973$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.44 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 6c | 13,774$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.11 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1592…1e14backed Yes | 0c | 13,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf172…7e24backed Yes | 5c | 13,277$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…7c8fbacked Yes | 4c | 13,110$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a1…4dedbacked Yes | 0c | 13,090$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…ed88backed Yes | 5c | 13,053$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 5c | 13,000$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.81 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf873…7e9ebacked Yes | 5c | 12,986$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6c…95c6backed Yes | 6c | 12,500$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes | 4c | 12,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb363…4c60backed Yes | 9c | 12,381$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed Yes | 5c | 12,300$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e3…b21fbacked Yes | 6c | 11,690$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.58 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e5…cb71backed Yes | 7c | 11,475$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…4c2bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 5c | 11,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…39b3backed Yes | 5c | 10,988$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…4a64backed Yes | 6c | 10,978$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 4c | 10,874$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34this page
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104Yes won
- Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.