TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,777,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,024,211

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,777,920 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 487 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5431…47e1backed Yes7c612,948$42,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,823.61241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+65.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes7c268,898$18,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,873.023212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes5c250,409$13,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,380.867041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes5c161,928$8,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,297.16110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Yes9c123,577$11,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,504.031546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb5b…df8dbacked Yes6c85,045$4,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,839.970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes6c83,067$5,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,093.897354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8b6…b0cabacked Yes8c81,450$6,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,401.79728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes6c79,260$4,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,848.2513540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes6c76,520$4,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,385.5410452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes10c76,131$7,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,651.661127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes6c66,279$4,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,180.1212630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes4c56,795$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,309.518921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes8c56,226$4,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,563.5316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Yes7c53,125$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,750.21216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes5c50,534$2,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,638.832429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes0c43,988$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.123859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x008f…f8b3backed Yes1c40,055$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes5c39,994$2,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,169.36170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes5c36,692$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.992015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c35,817$2,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,467.8696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d5…4699backed Yes5c35,388$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.841442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+84.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71d9…dd76backed Yes12c33,848$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes6c29,025$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.465038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e9…8b44backed Yes6c27,397$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.06425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…1a1abacked Yes7c27,188$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca5…76bfbacked Yes6c26,472$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfb…df99backed Yes8c24,731$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.61120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ee…d947backed Yes7c23,368$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.06911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8eae…9dd4backed Yes0c22,540$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes8c22,287$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.863132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes4c22,163$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.57147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes5c21,957$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.74156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-80.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd7…0b65backed Yes8c21,601$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0673…2e81backed Yes5c21,058$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.5980%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes8c20,249$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.148219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5077…5ba3backed Yes5c20,032$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2da…f8d4backed Yes8c20,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes5c20,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2970…e1c9backed Yes7c20,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40080%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed Yes2c20,000$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84e9…e2ecbacked Yes5c19,896$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…2323backed Yes0c19,100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd18f…681ebacked Yes5c18,842$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.5911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-55.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes8c18,816$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.6110749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes7c18,433$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.372445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes7c18,325$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.962147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2880…b493backed Yes9c17,848$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.421010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-67.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec1…467abacked Yes5c17,207$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.591323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f33…28fbbacked Yes0c16,320$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4814…1968backed Yes7c16,030$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.3160%0 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8af6…8d8cbacked Yes0c15,610$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes2c15,465$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.865318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes6c15,414$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.5412910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe9…8c31backed Yes8c15,382$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15770%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4433…fc19backed Yes9c15,000$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.13425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes7c14,695$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.97175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5df4…8667backed Yes0c14,620$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d1…75e8backed Yes5c14,237$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.93728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc72b…3756backed Yes9c13,800$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1732941.4%12 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+2.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6041…796dbacked Yes0c13,700$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76fc…e0bdbacked Yes7c13,000$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes8c13,000$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbdd…f191backed Yes8c12,511$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.0570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes6c12,500$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.5100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda66…736bbacked Yes8c12,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0be8…07a7backed Yes10c12,034$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes4c11,825$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.543435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+57.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8055…44c4backed Yes6c11,500$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.51915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3988…7515backed Yes9c11,459$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.52119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes6c11,423$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6323135.5%11 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes9c11,101$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.744346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes8c10,999$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.452744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+143.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d5e…7004backed Yes6c10,690$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.431816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes6c10,647$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.9417225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e5…cb71backed Yes5c10,540$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes7c10,529$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.58358.6%3 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31fc…4e30backed Yes6c10,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6302520%5 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes1c10,491$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119130%0 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e38…5d7fbacked Yes7c10,346$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.841060%6 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+61.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes7c10,135$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.452516%4 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62c3…b47abacked Yes6c10,110$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.5260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe899…0899backed Yes5c10,047$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+127.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23ae…5ddebacked Yes7c10,013$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7418…bb6cbacked Yes2c10,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb367…3f7cbacked Yes5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes4c10,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes5c10,000$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4853321.2%7 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes7c9,921$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.756728.4%19 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes4c9,789$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.38234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9748…3cbebacked Yes10c9,457$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea4a…b565backed Yes7c9,352$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.29100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77fc…b5ffbacked Yes9c9,350$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.7570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1694…8a14backed Yes7c9,247$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.63425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff4e…edc9backed Yes5c9,210$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes6c9,098$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.251007%7 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3485…159abacked Yes4c8,888$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes5c8,836$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.834247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb87…3bdbbacked Yes6c8,798$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.0490%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x936c…927abacked Yes6c8,656$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.5190%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.