TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,436,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,035,477

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,436,305 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 349 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes5c503,246$24,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,810.63110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes2c307,309$7,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,578.643212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c223,465$4,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,838.828921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8435…df2cbacked Yes2c118,757$2,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,919.350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes5c107,537$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Yes3c100,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7001546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes3c66,130$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.7810452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes4c63,653$2,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,453.2217225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes0c61,614$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.943859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes3c53,102$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.962516%4 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfb…df99backed Yes3c52,974$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.2120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes4c52,796$2,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,215.882015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x71d9…dd76backed Yes3c45,221$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.45100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4814…1968backed Yes2c42,200$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.1160%0 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7899…af3abacked Yes4c39,824$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.5160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes3c39,458$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.75316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x459f…7444backed Yes3c37,799$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.17100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa044…fff9backed Yes1c33,679$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc928…e2f6backed Yes2c33,569$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.0990%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe006…39b9backed Yes4c32,671$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.94110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed39…7c4ebacked Yes3c31,908$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe215…c8afbacked Yes3c30,193$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x268c…ed33backed Yes2c29,485$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.29137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-65.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda66…736bbacked Yes4c27,603$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc0…fb02backed Yes3c25,169$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.1670%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd18f…681ebacked Yes4c24,676$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.5911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-55.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878c…c985backed Yes1c24,015$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.59128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c23,915$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.3196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes3c23,421$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.32147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8055…44c4backed Yes3c21,960$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.961915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes4c21,074$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.77100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77fc…b5ffbacked Yes3c19,401$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b8…7af9backed Yes0c18,320$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes3c17,478$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.332227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcca1…5057backed Yes0c17,220$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a7f…12b7backed Yes0c17,050$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x420c…ccc0backed Yes3c16,932$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-59.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ca…9069backed Yes3c16,867$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500120%0 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x073c…7075backed Yes0c16,630$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb423…2323backed Yes0c16,530$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3988…7515backed Yes3c16,417$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b14…f7c9backed Yes0c15,980$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8292…84a1backed Yes3c15,883$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf478…59b8backed Yes1c15,612$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf46e…5d0abacked Yes4c15,368$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.2680%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f6c…95c6backed Yes3c14,734$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes4c14,621$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.44234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x830b…3975backed Yes3c14,510$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes3c13,993$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.186021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…db55backed Yes0c13,910$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0377…810ebacked Yes1c13,876$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes4c13,783$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.8315332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes3c13,178$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.44175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87fa…4c2bbacked Yes0c13,120$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce8b…196bbacked Yes4c13,120$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes3c13,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0831…1a7ebacked Yes4c12,824$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…d0cfbacked Yes4c12,689$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7418…bb6cbacked Yes3c12,500$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes5c12,500$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes3c12,481$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.24170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b9e…4a64backed Yes3c11,977$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x008f…f8b3backed Yes1c11,829$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf144…4c52backed Yes3c11,785$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes3c11,730$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.325038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a1…95a2backed Yes1c11,050$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2970…e1c9backed Yes4c10,175$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.480%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb87…3bdbbacked Yes3c10,019$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27890%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe9…8c31backed Yes4c10,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.170%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes3c10,000$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.7937844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x23ae…5ddebacked Yes4c10,000$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.2240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb367…3f7cbacked Yes4c10,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes4c9,977$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.461216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72f6…a5b5backed Yes3c9,699$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-58.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f3…91a0backed Yes3c9,360$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.07714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e63…81b3backed Yes4c9,340$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.92520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes3c9,112$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.12119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-63.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes4c8,314$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.857639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes3c8,300$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.4140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f91…d1fabacked Yes3c8,158$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes4c8,000$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc621…19c9backed Yes4c7,819$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff2b…0c88backed Yes3c7,553$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.863327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes4c7,500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2851717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfddf…8324backed Yes4c7,497$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.1580%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1063…e469backed Yes3c7,100$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.53911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa81e…e6fabacked Yes3c6,936$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22570%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe438…33b3backed Yes3c6,828$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-69.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7652…9c2abacked Yes4c6,688$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.6812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed Yes4c6,651$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.641225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes3c6,381$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.75130%0 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed2…e914backed Yes3c5,990$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.13922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc72b…3756backed Yes3c5,755$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.52941.4%12 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+2.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3e1b…c4c1backed Yes3c5,603$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.11216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-27.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes4c5,514$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-72.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x526b…1a25backed Yes3c5,289$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.570%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes3c5,241$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.695318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes3c5,219$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.487420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8599…d597backed Yes3c5,170$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes4c5,000$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1883435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+57.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.