TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,753,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,914,353

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,753,406 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 731 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes12c308,838$37,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,203.05110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes12c224,241$26,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,045.955641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes13c208,318$26,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,252.883212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes1c198,623$2,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,164.313859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a9…7b5bbacked Yes11c179,199$19,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,757.5170%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0377…810ebacked Yes1c165,965$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.632516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes10c139,978$14,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,572.912015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes10c134,691$13,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,110.2613540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c114,051$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.922847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2880…b493backed Yes10c79,973$8,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,001.681010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-67.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d5…3527backed Yes12c79,644$9,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,557.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes10c75,499$7,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,246.931711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1165…89e9backed Yes6c74,958$4,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,861.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c15…3c13backed Yes1c67,608$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes9c64,621$5,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,728.874630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89e7…df6bbacked Yes5c63,547$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,938.97475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+80.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed Yes0c61,999$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+67.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7bb…a4c5backed Yes9c60,262$5,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,559.55714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76d0…c092backed Yes15c57,344$8,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,622.57728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes18c56,283$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7a21…ac9cbacked Yes12c56,031$6,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,568.77560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce04…ae43backed Yes4c55,871$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc85…4494backed Yes20c50,736$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes10c50,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5405…3d7cbacked Yes2c47,607$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.111010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-83.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f36…6c9cbacked Yes12c41,700$5,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,138.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb532…916bbacked Yes0c41,249$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes2c39,690$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.287420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60eb…4949backed Yes11c38,789$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,300.45825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eb0…ebeabacked Yes13c37,746$4,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,835333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+218.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes8c36,589$3,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,089.963234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09b8…8860backed Yes3c36,298$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e9…af79backed Yes12c35,934$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,300250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e63…81b3backed Yes14c35,355$4,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,922.25520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes8c35,000$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,950147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73c7…b175backed Yes8c35,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8055…44c4backed Yes14c35,000$4,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8451915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x008b…b476backed Yes10c34,634$3,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,407.81850%4 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+132.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x530c…389abacked Yes19c34,569$6,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,43130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31fc…4e30backed Yes11c33,933$3,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,626.462520%5 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf440…2747backed Yes13c33,572$4,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,430.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+2.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes14c32,334$4,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6501822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes0c30,670$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6610211.8%12 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71d9…dd76backed Yes16c30,657$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes8c30,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes6c28,716$1,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,756.382516%4 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76fc…e0bdbacked Yes14c28,638$3,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,981.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes12c27,483$3,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,330.252445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4433…fc19backed Yes14c26,109$3,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,548.59425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc0…fb02backed Yes10c25,200$2,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,586.270%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c47…ecaebacked Yes0c25,038$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72f6…a5b5backed Yes13c24,694$3,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,314812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-58.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55a6…3899backed Yes16c23,960$3,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,803.82450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+69.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d93…1cffbacked Yes14c23,264$3,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,227.981060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+59.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x459f…7444backed Yes12c23,179$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,837.82100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1b…02e0backed Yes5c23,035$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.4490%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6386…9b33backed Yes1c21,432$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.98812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc72b…3756backed Yes15c21,100$3,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,082.952941.4%12 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+2.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes11c20,753$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,282.857354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3988…7515backed Yes16c20,530$3,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,353.6119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes10c20,277$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.93100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes12c20,058$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,328.821216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff30…4a37backed Yes2c20,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd6d…115abacked Yes3c20,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cf5…3687backed Yes7c20,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf46e…5d0abacked Yes9c20,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c9…6aebbacked Yes0c20,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes15c19,757$2,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,963.534833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a03…6891backed Yes2c19,393$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes11c19,000$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0105038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c0d…afe6backed Yes14c18,316$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+62.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes17c18,273$3,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,090.83540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d1…75e8backed Yes11c18,250$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb87…3bdbbacked Yes15c18,203$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.4290%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x268c…ed33backed Yes8c18,055$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.44137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-65.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c51…827ebacked Yes14c18,010$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.011250%6 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+39.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb9a…55a3backed Yes3c17,939$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes7c17,896$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.92835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9cf…a0d0backed Yes10c17,484$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a1…95a2backed Yes1c17,016$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb152…8315backed Yes10c16,775$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.471010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Yes4c16,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6261…7ce4backed Yes10c16,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes10c15,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45037844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe1f3…91a0backed Yes19c14,322$2,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,685.45714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68d8…8c3fbacked Yes15c13,641$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.26837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb1…326cbacked Yes15c13,452$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f62…02efbacked Yes14c13,369$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,881.311442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe9…8c31backed Yes22c12,870$2,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,771.2970%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72e7…dc57backed Yes17c12,842$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148.51741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes13c12,668$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.742227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c12,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57cc…9f51backed Yes12c11,948$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb777…3ef1backed Yes14c11,887$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd503…4542backed Yes17c11,571$1,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,971333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+56%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda66…736bbacked Yes17c11,530$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x188b…6003backed Yes9c11,111$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes9c11,111$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.991717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f8f…ac9bbacked Yes10c10,090$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes8c10,061$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.61120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.