TailMyPicks
Market

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,262,056
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,149,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,262,056 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 368 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86ec…a3a7backed Yes1c434,351$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc928…e2f6backed Yes1c299,999$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9990%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x427c…0b56backed Yes10c292,588$28,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,256.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c216,633$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.296021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d04…ed05backed Yes9c213,178$19,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,218.31616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9c…1811backed Yes0c111,417$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes1c106,514$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.56234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d6e…2f0ebacked Yes1c103,147$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0377…810ebacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac59…029ebacked Yes1c85,462$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes1c77,548$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.84120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes1c67,513$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.06140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes1c66,435$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.772015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe006…39b9backed Yes2c63,428$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes2c62,586$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,557.1317225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4814…1968backed Yes1c54,554$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.22160%0 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d1b…393dbacked Yes1c53,414$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes1c50,001$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4714833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes4c48,372$1,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,842.252040%8 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa136…b242backed Yes2c47,777$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes1c40,951$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.8815332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b86…d9eabacked Yes2c36,552$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes3c36,087$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8512910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e9…c412backed Yes1c33,347$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f1…f859backed Yes2c32,548$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ca…9069backed Yes2c32,496$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500120%0 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e87…ddc1backed Yes2c31,857$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcea5…80f7backed Yes1c31,774$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.0160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x550d…8cabbacked Yes1c30,923$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.871921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes1c30,881$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.33728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick15cpaid+82%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ff1…9e40backed Yes0c30,128$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe972…86aabacked Yes0c27,976$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1184…3757backed Yes0c27,976$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x410b…2c57backed Yes0c27,976$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x760b…26ecbacked Yes1c27,624$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.92810.7%3 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3554…69bdbacked Yes2c26,507$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes5c26,000$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2093132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4592…e2dcbacked Yes0c25,824$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6226…ae69backed Yes0c25,824$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0491…a47fbacked Yes3c25,095$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.1460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d08…027fbacked Yes2c25,039$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ab…5058backed Yes2c24,361$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3554…e197backed Yes2c24,361$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6606…1338backed Yes2c24,000$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3668…0044backed Yes0c23,672$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd60…ed32backed Yes0c23,672$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes1c22,134$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.57316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e67…c256backed Yes1c21,073$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.931711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-58.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaccb…fa79backed Yes1c20,217$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a8…7fe0backed Yes0c19,368$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes1c18,514$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.642516%4 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d07…b8ddbacked Yes1c18,293$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a9c…3183backed Yes1c18,182$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72e9…fcd8backed Yes1c16,166$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes1c16,062$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1581811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a08…0db2backed Yes1c15,143$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-90.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c13,921$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.558921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d67…5a7cbacked Yes1c13,578$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x657b…122dbacked Yes0c13,432$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf256…a93fbacked Yes2c13,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78f1…b2e1backed Yes0c12,912$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5513…9dcebacked Yes0c12,912$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf560…02ffbacked Yes2c12,492$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c12,309$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f62…02efbacked Yes1c12,215$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.091442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a70…041abacked Yes1c12,046$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes1c11,636$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.193423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd46b…0eabbacked Yes0c11,264$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed47…6af8backed Yes1c11,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa903…92c6backed Yes1c10,807$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe184…08c5backed Yes1c10,800$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ff1…a752backed Yes0c10,760$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb152…8315backed Yes12c10,706$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.061010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x792b…2266backed Yes1c10,408$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11c2…2149backed Yes1c10,341$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Yes1c9,906$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.47933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b1…a7dbbacked Yes1c9,823$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c9,619$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.442847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9da…dc9abacked Yes1c9,538$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d79…1b73backed Yes1c9,299$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb65c…82c6backed Yes1c9,125$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bc0…8c78backed Yes1c9,032$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes2c9,000$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55a4…9500backed Yes1c8,661$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Yes2c8,653$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.84318.6%8 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6521…2edabacked Yes4c8,648$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b2…5fa3backed Yes1c8,596$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6fc…98cfbacked Yes1c8,101$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa09c…ed07backed Yes1c8,084$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb336…4e71backed Yes1c8,009$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.33147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7652…9c2abacked Yes2c7,847$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.25812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44aa…14e3backed Yes1c7,829$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd650…e416backed Yes1c7,439$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba7c…bdccbacked Yes1c7,342$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cf5…0510backed Yes2c7,250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd10…eb14backed Yes1c7,184$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes2c7,161$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.022400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x91d3…fab3backed Yes1c7,111$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-57.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d8…ab32backed Yes1c7,102$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc442…9fa0backed Yes0c6,978$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.