Us Politics · resolved market
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14a087f7b1b23b9a3c32799255edf18832d548302d6657efdba816a458a18d4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,393,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,488,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,393,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c42…5e8fbacked Yes | 1c | 233,445$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 3c | 203,953$7,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,014.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…2f42backed Yes | 4c | 179,966$7,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,249.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 5c | 178,796$8,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,833.15 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0537backed Yes | 4c | 173,967$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes | 0c | 160,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4750backed Yes | 2c | 155,418$3,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,699.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…1a7bbacked Yes | 3c | 139,512$4,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,505 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd7…23cbbacked Yes | 3c | 136,831$4,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,241.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…637cbacked Yes | 3c | 133,176$4,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,373.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…313dbacked Yes | 3c | 123,831$4,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,143.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…ae10backed Yes | 3c | 116,721$3,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,582.87 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a9…7b5bbacked Yes | 6c | 114,229$7,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,167.89 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 6c | 101,908$5,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,745.78 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…bab1backed Yes | 3c | 91,199$3,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,175.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 4c | 86,205$3,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,532.18 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 3c | 76,307$2,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470.53 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0f…f4e1backed Yes | 2c | 75,273$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…a6d7backed Yes | 4c | 71,385$2,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,702.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96cc…db22backed Yes | 2c | 71,374$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 2c | 68,663$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.93 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bb…a4c5backed Yes | 6c | 57,979$3,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,208.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 7c | 57,208$3,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,863.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 52,340$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.59 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd2…ce27backed Yes | 2c | 49,988$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…319ebacked Yes | 5c | 43,631$2,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.95 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…481fbacked Yes | 2c | 40,078$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…df8dbacked Yes | 4c | 37,370$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…624abacked Yes | 4c | 36,638$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4814…1968backed Yes | 3c | 32,000$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.35 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…39b9backed Yes | 6c | 29,990$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.46 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…5fd9backed Yes | 3c | 29,308$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…4760backed Yes | 5c | 28,416$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 26,670$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.71 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc4…18ecbacked Yes | 3c | 24,385$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…5a29backed Yes | 3c | 22,689$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936c…927abacked Yes | 6c | 22,500$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.67 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…271cbacked Yes | 4c | 22,412$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 4c | 21,694$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.19 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…5563backed Yes | 2c | 21,548$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 3c | 19,611$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.44 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 3c | 18,511$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.13 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f93…e3aebacked Yes | 5c | 18,421$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730b…9055backed Yes | 3c | 16,857$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…de7fbacked Yes | 6c | 16,466$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes | 3c | 15,984$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…0286backed Yes | 2c | 15,257$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 6c | 15,039$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.7 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…080ebacked Yes | 2c | 15,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 3c | 13,624$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.71 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e3…2708backed Yes | 4c | 12,849$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes | 2c | 12,435$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.99 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e3…b21fbacked Yes | 6c | 12,083$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 5c | 11,850$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.38 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb336…4e71backed Yes | 2c | 10,855$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.54 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe565…0401backed Yes | 3c | 10,704$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…7444backed Yes | 3c | 10,423$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.17 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd828…519ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,415$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…49e2backed Yes | 5c | 10,250$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 2c | 10,200$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be8…07a7backed Yes | 4c | 10,090$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…b565backed Yes | 2c | 10,001$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.43 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc604…5438backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…7ba5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…70c9backed Yes | 2c | 9,981$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf873…7e9ebacked Yes | 5c | 9,927$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.07 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22e…d526backed Yes | 1c | 9,586$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a20…c0bcbacked Yes | 4c | 9,062$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.18 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 5c | 8,558$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.46 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…50d9backed Yes | 3c | 8,423$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 2c | 8,360$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…7ba6backed Yes | 3c | 8,026$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…9482backed Yes | 3c | 7,951$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 18cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes | 6c | 7,518$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.42 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…ed07backed Yes | 4c | 7,361$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…f87bbacked Yes | 5c | 7,000$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b7…46bebacked Yes | 3c | 6,387$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…3a88backed Yes | 5c | 6,288$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 5c | 6,246$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.78 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 5c | 6,201$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.89 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd442…93e5backed Yes | 4c | 5,619$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 5,617$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.68 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…a47fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,606$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…191cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,570$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 3c | 5,500$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.36 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 6c | 5,101$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.54 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…084cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,083$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaac3…e251backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…3dacbacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…1669backed Yes | 5c | 4,895$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd7…95f6backed Yes | 2c | 4,726$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…dce4backed Yes | 2c | 4,555$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 3c | 4,351$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.92 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 3c | 4,272$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.34 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…9a32backed Yes | 3c | 4,165$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked Yes | 6c | 3,879$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.79 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214this page
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104Yes won
- Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.