TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,393,719
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,488,473

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,393,719 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c42…5e8fbacked Yes1c233,445$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74d1…1a60backed Yes3c203,953$7,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,014.5690%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd28e…2f42backed Yes4c179,966$7,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,249.6150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes5c178,796$8,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,833.154630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a2…0537backed Yes4c173,967$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes0c160,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-80.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8714…4750backed Yes2c155,418$3,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,699.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e3…1a7bbacked Yes3c139,512$4,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd7…23cbbacked Yes3c136,831$4,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,241.2240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd99…637cbacked Yes3c133,176$4,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,373.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66b6…313dbacked Yes3c123,831$4,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,143.0960%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed Yes3c116,721$3,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,582.87110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a9…7b5bbacked Yes6c114,229$7,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,167.8970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes6c101,908$5,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,745.782020%4 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef13…bab1backed Yes3c91,199$3,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,175.9870%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes4c86,205$3,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,532.181711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes3c76,307$2,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,470.53316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c0f…f4e1backed Yes2c75,273$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.3560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9d…a6d7backed Yes4c71,385$2,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,702.4616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-76%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96cc…db22backed Yes2c71,374$1,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.0960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes2c68,663$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.936028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7bb…a4c5backed Yes6c57,979$3,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,208.54714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked Yes7c57,208$3,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,863.771353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes4c52,340$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.5917225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bd2…ce27backed Yes2c49,988$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x774c…319ebacked Yes5c43,631$2,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,112.95100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9716…481fbacked Yes2c40,078$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.7260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5b…df8dbacked Yes4c37,370$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.3970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c37,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe1…624abacked Yes4c36,638$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4814…1968backed Yes3c32,000$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.35160%0 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe006…39b9backed Yes6c29,990$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.46110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48e2…5fd9backed Yes3c29,308$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ad9…4760backed Yes5c28,416$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-84.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c26,670$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.7196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc4…18ecbacked Yes3c24,385$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.4890%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb0d…5a29backed Yes3c22,689$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x936c…927abacked Yes6c22,500$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.6790%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb07…271cbacked Yes4c22,412$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.4460%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes4c21,694$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.19175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea9a…5563backed Yes2c21,548$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes3c19,611$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.4410452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes3c18,511$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.134542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f93…e3aebacked Yes5c18,421$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730b…9055backed Yes3c16,857$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb86d…de7fbacked Yes6c16,466$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes3c15,984$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.1960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…0286backed Yes2c15,257$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes6c15,039$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.7175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d97…080ebacked Yes2c15,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes3c13,624$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.715318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53e3…2708backed Yes4c12,849$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes2c12,435$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.99100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62e3…b21fbacked Yes6c12,083$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.5100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes5c11,850$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.38170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb336…4e71backed Yes2c10,855$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.54147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe565…0401backed Yes3c10,704$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.0550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x459f…7444backed Yes3c10,423$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.17100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd828…519ebacked Yes2c10,415$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.7190%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8be4…49e2backed Yes5c10,250$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes2c10,200$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.26021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0be8…07a7backed Yes4c10,090$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea4a…b565backed Yes2c10,001$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.43100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc604…5438backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16d6…7ba5backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8011…70c9backed Yes2c9,981$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf873…7e9ebacked Yes5c9,927$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.0780%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe22e…d526backed Yes1c9,586$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.44616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a20…c0bcbacked Yes4c9,062$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.18137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes5c8,558$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.46234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4b1…50d9backed Yes3c8,423$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.7380%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes2c8,360$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7716725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc81f…7ba6backed Yes3c8,026$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e83…9482backed Yes3c7,951$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.91560%3 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick18cpaid+188.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes6c7,518$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.42120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa09c…ed07backed Yes4c7,361$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30270%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0838…f87bbacked Yes5c7,000$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b7…46bebacked Yes3c6,387$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7831…3a88backed Yes5c6,288$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30150%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes5c6,246$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.783043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes5c6,201$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.893218.8%6 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd442…93e5backed Yes4c5,619$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes4c5,617$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.682847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0491…a47fbacked Yes5c5,606$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.360%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d56…191cbacked Yes4c5,570$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-80.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes3c5,500$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.36358.6%3 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes6c5,101$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.545530.9%17 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f68…084cbacked Yes3c5,083$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaac3…e251backed Yes3c5,000$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5180%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Yes2c5,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1158547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x240e…e8aabacked Yes2c5,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x096a…3dacbacked Yes6c5,000$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.580%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41c8…1669backed Yes5c4,895$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cd7…95f6backed Yes2c4,726$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1870%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5318…dce4backed Yes2c4,555$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes3c4,351$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.927254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Yes3c4,272$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.344318.6%8 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf815…9a32backed Yes3c4,165$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12590%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes2c4,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edc…29cbbacked Yes6c3,879$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.79119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-88.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.