TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,503,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,120,153

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,503,322 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 565 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfb5b…df8dbacked Yes8c144,026$11,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,084.3170%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes8c134,440$10,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,624.284630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes6c133,980$7,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,906.323212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes10c111,669$10,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,910.12170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c0f…f4e1backed Yes6c90,639$5,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,438.3360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes8c84,068$6,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,710.47316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed Yes6c70,539$4,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,320.76110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes6c69,180$4,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,375.642020%4 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a50…1248backed Yes9c67,422$5,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,889.31812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes8c63,818$5,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,139.037041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77fc…b5ffbacked Yes9c62,707$5,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,778.9570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes0c58,300$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.33859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked Yes10c51,724$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf873…7e9ebacked Yes8c50,742$3,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,961.4380%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc928…e2f6backed Yes6c50,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00090%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5758…da7bbacked Yes8c50,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd8d1…599dbacked Yes8c50,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes9c46,468$4,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,296.95175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33bd…e78cbacked Yes9c45,829$4,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,200.6940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes9c45,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9716…481fbacked Yes8c43,348$3,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,590.3660%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3206…da51backed Yes9c43,301$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x535e…de43backed Yes8c40,787$3,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,262.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes7c36,195$2,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,535.61711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71d9…dd76backed Yes10c35,999$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0120…b177backed Yes2c33,689$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.4550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes13c31,000$4,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,098.542015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes9c30,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7899…af3abacked Yes10c29,186$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes7c28,413$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.8610452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9d…a6d7backed Yes9c26,820$2,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,317.71616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-76%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cc0…fb02backed Yes7c25,200$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76470%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea4a…b565backed Yes7c24,224$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.72100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6335…15e1backed Yes9c23,200$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0067…ed88backed Yes9c22,693$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.82520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes8c22,635$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.16358.6%3 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes4c21,745$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.158921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes10c21,509$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,085.18147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8055…44c4backed Yes8c21,000$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6251915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8552…6d62backed Yes0c20,900$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ae…a7fdbacked Yes10c20,007$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb367…3f7cbacked Yes10c20,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2301…e6d9backed Yes7c19,673$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d56…d848backed Yes0c19,600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7d…7c8fbacked Yes8c19,340$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.2950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes9c19,142$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.7712630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eae…9dd4backed Yes0c18,430$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea0c…d854backed Yes8c18,224$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.05120%0 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb90…7d98backed Yes9c17,936$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ee…d947backed Yes7c17,455$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.59911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes11c17,235$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.867133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5935…fe84backed Yes7c17,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2970…e1c9backed Yes7c16,618$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.2480%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16cd…247bbacked Yes7c15,839$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbdd…f191backed Yes8c15,825$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.5470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b64…c9a2backed Yes0c15,800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x730b…9055backed Yes6c15,404$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97870%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8e…566dbacked Yes0c15,260$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf212…2e51backed Yes0c15,180$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes9c15,034$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.755038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d97…080ebacked Yes9c15,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes7c15,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05015646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes5c15,000$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7925318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74d1…1a60backed Yes6c15,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90090%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3988…7515backed Yes9c14,838$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00b4…75dbbacked Yes7c14,597$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.761163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1126…035fbacked Yes0c14,548$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e3…b21fbacked Yes9c14,375$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.74100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0be8…07a7backed Yes8c14,306$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9c…2759backed Yes7c14,286$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x073c…7075backed Yes0c14,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x254c…7691backed Yes0c13,420$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes8c13,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10013540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55a4…774ebacked Yes8c12,985$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f6c…95c6backed Yes8c12,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.02812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes6c12,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb137…66c8backed Yes8c12,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38f8…33cfbacked Yes8c12,011$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd18f…681ebacked Yes9c11,812$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.42911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-55.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…6a81backed Yes0c11,800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0807…c05bbacked Yes9c11,719$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a07…9b8abacked Yes0c11,360$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfb…df99backed Yes8c11,322$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.3120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes9c11,111$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.991717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes7c11,048$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.052227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c50…4f6ebacked Yes9c10,881$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.0790%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf57f…e5fcbacked Yes8c10,800$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8691711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-78.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a9a…81d5backed Yes11c10,625$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f33…28fbbacked Yes0c10,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1471…4d8dbacked Yes8c10,476$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d4…7930backed Yes7c10,005$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b50…43e8backed Yes8c10,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe352…f259backed Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2228…7eafbacked Yes9c9,865$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc621…19c9backed Yes10c9,712$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes8c9,700$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7865530.9%17 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes9c9,500$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89037844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84e9…e2ecbacked Yes10c9,313$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75c8…a870backed Yes9c9,295$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.081010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb423…2323backed Yes0c9,160$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.