Us Politics · resolved market
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba8ded3f29006bb62e05590ebe5e04dc24e129e5c9d01e66e2943def1f780806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,503,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,120,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,503,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 565 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb5b…df8dbacked Yes | 8c | 144,026$11,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,084.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 8c | 134,440$10,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,624.28 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 6c | 133,980$7,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,906.32 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 10c | 111,669$10,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,910.12 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0f…f4e1backed Yes | 6c | 90,639$5,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,438.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 8c | 84,068$6,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,710.47 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…ae10backed Yes | 6c | 70,539$4,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,320.76 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 6c | 69,180$4,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,375.64 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a50…1248backed Yes | 9c | 67,422$5,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,889.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 8c | 63,818$5,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,139.03 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…b5ffbacked Yes | 9c | 62,707$5,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,778.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 0c | 58,300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 10c | 51,724$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf873…7e9ebacked Yes | 8c | 50,742$3,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,961.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc928…e2f6backed Yes | 6c | 50,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5758…da7bbacked Yes | 8c | 50,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d1…599dbacked Yes | 8c | 50,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 9c | 46,468$4,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,296.95 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bd…e78cbacked Yes | 9c | 45,829$4,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 9c | 45,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…481fbacked Yes | 8c | 43,348$3,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,590.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3206…da51backed Yes | 9c | 43,301$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…de43backed Yes | 8c | 40,787$3,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 7c | 36,195$2,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,535.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…dd76backed Yes | 10c | 35,999$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0120…b177backed Yes | 2c | 33,689$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 13c | 31,000$4,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,098.54 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes | 9c | 30,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7899…af3abacked Yes | 10c | 29,186$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 7c | 28,413$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.86 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…a6d7backed Yes | 9c | 26,820$2,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,317.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc0…fb02backed Yes | 7c | 25,200$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…b565backed Yes | 7c | 24,224$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.72 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…15e1backed Yes | 9c | 23,200$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…ed88backed Yes | 9c | 22,693$2,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,013.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 8c | 22,635$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.16 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 21,745$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.15 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 10c | 21,509$2,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,085.18 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8055…44c4backed Yes | 8c | 21,000$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8552…6d62backed Yes | 0c | 20,900$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…a7fdbacked Yes | 10c | 20,007$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb367…3f7cbacked Yes | 10c | 20,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…e6d9backed Yes | 7c | 19,673$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d56…d848backed Yes | 0c | 19,600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…7c8fbacked Yes | 8c | 19,340$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 9c | 19,142$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.77 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eae…9dd4backed Yes | 0c | 18,430$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…d854backed Yes | 8c | 18,224$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.05 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…7d98backed Yes | 9c | 17,936$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed Yes | 7c | 17,455$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 11c | 17,235$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.86 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…fe84backed Yes | 7c | 17,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Yes | 7c | 16,618$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cd…247bbacked Yes | 7c | 15,839$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdd…f191backed Yes | 8c | 15,825$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b64…c9a2backed Yes | 0c | 15,800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730b…9055backed Yes | 6c | 15,404$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8e…566dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,260$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…2e51backed Yes | 0c | 15,180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 9c | 15,034$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.75 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…080ebacked Yes | 9c | 15,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 7c | 15,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 5c | 15,000$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 6c | 15,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3988…7515backed Yes | 9c | 14,838$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b4…75dbbacked Yes | 7c | 14,597$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.76 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…035fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,548$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e3…b21fbacked Yes | 9c | 14,375$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.74 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be8…07a7backed Yes | 8c | 14,306$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…2759backed Yes | 7c | 14,286$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073c…7075backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7691backed Yes | 0c | 13,420$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 8c | 13,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a4…774ebacked Yes | 8c | 12,985$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6c…95c6backed Yes | 8c | 12,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes | 6c | 12,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb137…66c8backed Yes | 8c | 12,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…33cfbacked Yes | 8c | 12,011$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…681ebacked Yes | 9c | 11,812$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 11,800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0807…c05bbacked Yes | 9c | 11,719$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a07…9b8abacked Yes | 0c | 11,360$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…df99backed Yes | 8c | 11,322$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.3 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 9c | 11,111$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 7c | 11,048$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.05 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c50…4f6ebacked Yes | 9c | 10,881$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.07 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57f…e5fcbacked Yes | 8c | 10,800$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9a…81d5backed Yes | 11c | 10,625$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f33…28fbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1471…4d8dbacked Yes | 8c | 10,476$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d4…7930backed Yes | 7c | 10,005$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed Yes | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2228…7eafbacked Yes | 9c | 9,865$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…19c9backed Yes | 10c | 9,712$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 8c | 9,700$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 9c | 9,500$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84e9…e2ecbacked Yes | 10c | 9,313$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c8…a870backed Yes | 9c | 9,295$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…2323backed Yes | 0c | 9,160$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64this page
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104Yes won
- Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.