TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,230,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,600,448

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,230,771 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 244 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes3c189,210$5,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,035.150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc928…e2f6backed Yes2c175,000$4,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,02590%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe083…fcb5backed Yes3c157,073$4,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,536.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes2c150,322$3,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,351.1120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d04…ed05backed Yes10c106,229$10,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,138.63616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes2c100,297$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.994833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c32…3945backed Yes3c96,757$2,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,870.35425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes3c88,995$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.492015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x79f2…7620backed Yes4c73,220$2,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,871.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0377…810ebacked Yes0c66,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes1c65,168$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.611225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid+89.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6606…1338backed Yes6c46,027$2,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,628.45825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe006…39b9backed Yes3c41,221$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.2110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaccb…fa79backed Yes3c40,831$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c40,387$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.648921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes2c40,341$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.176021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4814…1968backed Yes2c40,096$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.3160%0 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e87…ddc1backed Yes4c35,908$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes2c35,887$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.563423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ba1…1171backed Yes3c34,576$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+67.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes1c30,205$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.491711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59fd…e030backed Yes2c30,000$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.16425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac59…029ebacked Yes2c25,270$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes2c25,050$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.5315332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes4c24,696$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.4560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+68.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes4c23,559$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.571346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick27cpaid+124%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes0c23,287$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.473859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d6e…2f0ebacked Yes3c23,206$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes2c22,370$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.55234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes3c21,612$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.9917225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1426…2056backed Yes4c20,177$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f62…02efbacked Yes2c19,558$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.681442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bb…a4c5backed Yes4c19,429$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.04714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c19,076$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.6996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes3c18,224$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.412910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38ed…46e4backed Yes0c18,020$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x550d…8cabbacked Yes2c17,100$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.871921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes3c17,048$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.99140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes2c17,000$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3913132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb807…b03fbacked Yes0c15,030$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb6d…ab88backed Yes2c15,000$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-32.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0344…2538backed Yes3c14,543$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b4e…6880backed Yes0c14,530$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde3…8ad2backed Yes0c14,370$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f1…f859backed Yes3c14,342$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes1c13,518$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.02175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x760b…26ecbacked Yes3c12,217$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.622810.7%3 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x008b…b476backed Yes3c11,641$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.41850%4 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+132.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9f8…4bb5backed Yes0c11,590$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3554…69bdbacked Yes3c10,960$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb152…8315backed Yes8c10,874$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.381010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe184…08c5backed Yes3c10,800$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x627b…7d19backed Yes6c10,725$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cfa…cad0backed Yes0c10,460$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9100…1bfbbacked Yes2c10,452$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+72.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eae…9dd4backed Yes0c10,220$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a53…6cc0backed Yes1c10,154$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.73616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes2c10,087$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd337…b1ecbacked Yes0c10,060$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Yes1c9,500$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1194318.6%8 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes3c9,444$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.11414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcea5…80f7backed Yes3c9,329$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26960%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f8…89e4backed Yes3c9,259$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.27425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f3…91a0backed Yes3c8,929$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0491…a47fbacked Yes2c8,571$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a08…0db2backed Yes2c8,356$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.47263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-90.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes4c8,336$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.6216725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6999…336cbacked Yes2c8,238$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb336…4e71backed Yes2c7,811$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.47147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd968…bd18backed Yes1c7,203$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a8…2d76backed Yes6c7,126$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72f6…a5b5backed Yes3c7,083$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-58.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x761b…55c7backed Yes2c6,808$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.55540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick14cpaid+52.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7652…9c2abacked Yes3c6,688$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.53812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff2b…0c88backed Yes2c6,652$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.983327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb7…6095backed Yes2c6,644$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8f6…c52abacked Yes3c6,510$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.16560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+63.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe56…d1febacked Yes3c6,401$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes7c6,204$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.561631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72e9…fcd8backed Yes2c6,053$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes3c5,940$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1581811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd889…4febbacked Yes3c5,783$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.95812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x567e…82a7backed Yes2c5,384$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd28e…2f42backed Yes10c5,200$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb970…5866backed Yes1c5,124$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.59520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-58.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes2c5,000$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes3c5,000$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15237844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe5f1…6b3fbacked Yes11c5,000$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44aa…14e3backed Yes2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f70…b854backed Yes3c4,931$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ff…98ebbacked Yes3c4,734$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.76520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x708f…f236backed Yes2c4,705$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-83.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes2c4,557$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.482516%4 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc02a…f596backed Yes2c4,552$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x579e…eda1backed Yes3c4,500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb75e…1d5dbacked Yes2c4,494$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d1b…393dbacked Yes2c4,481$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes4c4,451$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.116028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf117…f042backed Yes2c4,221$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x776d…2088backed Yes2c4,192$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+130.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.