Us Politics · resolved market
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd007d71fd17b0913b9d7ff198f617caa96a9e4aab1bed7d6f9abd76bb17dd507
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,230,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,600,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,230,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 244 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 3c | 189,210$5,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,035.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc928…e2f6backed Yes | 2c | 175,000$4,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,025 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…fcb5backed Yes | 3c | 157,073$4,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,536.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes | 2c | 150,322$3,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,351.1 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…ed05backed Yes | 10c | 106,229$10,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,138.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 2c | 100,297$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.99 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c32…3945backed Yes | 3c | 96,757$2,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,870.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 3c | 88,995$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.49 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f2…7620backed Yes | 4c | 73,220$2,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,871.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked Yes | 0c | 66,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 1c | 65,168$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…1338backed Yes | 6c | 46,027$2,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,628.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…39b9backed Yes | 3c | 41,221$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccb…fa79backed Yes | 3c | 40,831$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 40,387$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.64 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 2c | 40,341$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.17 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4814…1968backed Yes | 2c | 40,096$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.3 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…ddc1backed Yes | 4c | 35,908$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 2c | 35,887$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.56 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1171backed Yes | 3c | 34,576$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 1c | 30,205$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.49 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fd…e030backed Yes | 2c | 30,000$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac59…029ebacked Yes | 2c | 25,270$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 2c | 25,050$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.53 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes | 4c | 24,696$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes | 4c | 23,559$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 0c | 23,287$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6e…2f0ebacked Yes | 3c | 23,206$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 2c | 22,370$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.55 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 21,612$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.99 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1426…2056backed Yes | 4c | 20,177$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…02efbacked Yes | 2c | 19,558$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bb…a4c5backed Yes | 4c | 19,429$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 19,076$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.69 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 18,224$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.4 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ed…46e4backed Yes | 0c | 18,020$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 17,100$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.87 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 3c | 17,048$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.99 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 2c | 17,000$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…b03fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,030$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6d…ab88backed Yes | 2c | 15,000$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…2538backed Yes | 3c | 14,543$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4e…6880backed Yes | 0c | 14,530$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…8ad2backed Yes | 0c | 14,370$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…f859backed Yes | 3c | 14,342$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 1c | 13,518$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.02 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 3c | 12,217$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.62 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…b476backed Yes | 3c | 11,641$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…4bb5backed Yes | 0c | 11,590$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3554…69bdbacked Yes | 3c | 10,960$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…8315backed Yes | 8c | 10,874$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe184…08c5backed Yes | 3c | 10,800$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x627b…7d19backed Yes | 6c | 10,725$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…cad0backed Yes | 0c | 10,460$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9100…1bfbbacked Yes | 2c | 10,452$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eae…9dd4backed Yes | 0c | 10,220$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a53…6cc0backed Yes | 1c | 10,154$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes | 2c | 10,087$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd337…b1ecbacked Yes | 0c | 10,060$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 1c | 9,500$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 3c | 9,444$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.1 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…80f7backed Yes | 3c | 9,329$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…89e4backed Yes | 3c | 9,259$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f3…91a0backed Yes | 3c | 8,929$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…a47fbacked Yes | 2c | 8,571$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 2c | 8,356$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.47 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 8,336$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.62 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6999…336cbacked Yes | 2c | 8,238$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb336…4e71backed Yes | 2c | 7,811$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.47 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…bd18backed Yes | 1c | 7,203$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…2d76backed Yes | 6c | 7,126$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f6…a5b5backed Yes | 3c | 7,083$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…55c7backed Yes | 2c | 6,808$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7652…9c2abacked Yes | 3c | 6,688$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…0c88backed Yes | 2c | 6,652$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb7…6095backed Yes | 2c | 6,644$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…c52abacked Yes | 3c | 6,510$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…d1febacked Yes | 3c | 6,401$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 7c | 6,204$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e9…fcd8backed Yes | 2c | 6,053$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 3c | 5,940$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd889…4febbacked Yes | 3c | 5,783$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…82a7backed Yes | 2c | 5,384$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…2f42backed Yes | 10c | 5,200$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb970…5866backed Yes | 1c | 5,124$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f1…6b3fbacked Yes | 11c | 5,000$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…14e3backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…b854backed Yes | 3c | 4,931$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ff…98ebbacked Yes | 3c | 4,734$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed Yes | 2c | 4,705$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 2c | 4,557$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…f596backed Yes | 2c | 4,552$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579e…eda1backed Yes | 3c | 4,500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1d5dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,494$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…393dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,481$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 4c | 4,451$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.11 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…f042backed Yes | 2c | 4,221$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776d…2088backed Yes | 2c | 4,192$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214this page
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104Yes won
- Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.