TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,153,981
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,786,070

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,153,981 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 336 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x383a…c380backed Yes0c787,117$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+189.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c0f…f4e1backed Yes3c339,699$11,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,724.3360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c185,177$4,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,117.18921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes5c145,471$6,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,863.62175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bd2…ce27backed Yes4c129,226$4,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,857.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e3…1a7bbacked Yes3c121,122$4,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed Yes3c111,202$3,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,524.71110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes4c107,167$4,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,198.511711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a9…7b5bbacked Yes5c107,148$5,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,121.5670%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8714…4750backed Yes3c100,032$2,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,959.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes4c92,328$3,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,909.03316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked Yes6c89,289$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes5c87,877$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,050.29170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes4c77,806$3,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,110.5617225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a50…1248backed Yes2c70,568$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.71812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes4c65,291$2,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,313.166028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c42…5e8fbacked Yes2c60,295$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes1c55,686$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.01156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-80.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes5c53,327$2,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,819.434630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3206…da51backed Yes4c52,953$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes4c52,524$2,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,058.9710452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5b…df8dbacked Yes5c50,403$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700.2570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9716…481fbacked Yes4c50,000$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,02560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bb…a4c5backed Yes4c45,198$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,790.23714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf873…7e9ebacked Yes5c41,883$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.7480%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe006…39b9backed Yes3c40,531$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.91110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe1…624abacked Yes4c36,451$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c35,471$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.3496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd7…23cbbacked Yes1c34,314$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.4640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730b…9055backed Yes4c32,905$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.5970%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes5c31,760$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.72175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d9d…a6d7backed Yes5c29,715$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.27616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-76%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbdd…f191backed Yes4c28,745$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x774c…319ebacked Yes4c27,462$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.06100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61d3…7538backed Yes7c26,388$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x459f…7444backed Yes5c25,433$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.84100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb86d…de7fbacked Yes5c24,125$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc411…caa7backed Yes4c23,698$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.531711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-73.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…0286backed Yes4c22,968$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef13…bab1backed Yes5c22,780$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.8570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc4…18ecbacked Yes4c22,697$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.3690%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4814…1968backed Yes4c22,111$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.27160%0 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea4a…b565backed Yes4c21,237$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.38100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b6…313dbacked Yes3c20,913$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.8460%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55a4…774ebacked Yes8c19,889$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0be8…07a7backed Yes6c19,821$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x936c…927abacked Yes6c18,527$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.0690%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3a2…c551backed Yes6c18,504$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf12…f9d1backed Yes5c18,225$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x220a…923bbacked Yes4c17,928$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0491…a47fbacked Yes4c17,448$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.2660%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c50…4f6ebacked Yes5c17,366$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.8490%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes4c17,301$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.0160%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc928…e2f6backed Yes3c17,031$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.9190%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62e3…b21fbacked Yes5c16,920$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.85100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8011…70c9backed Yes3c16,165$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes4c15,975$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.01358.6%3 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb0d…5a29backed Yes4c15,730$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.4640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeddf…462fbacked Yes6c15,457$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb137…66c8backed Yes7c15,368$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Yes5c15,100$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.2670%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d97…080ebacked Yes5c15,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e3…2708backed Yes7c14,841$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a2…0537backed Yes7c14,721$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee1…01f8backed Yes5c14,222$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+262.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes4c14,002$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.45234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc59f…c364backed Yes5c12,848$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.512653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes3c12,591$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.845318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea9a…5563backed Yes5c12,583$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.6680%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad9…4760backed Yes4c12,329$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.29812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-84.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a1a…c653backed Yes7c12,192$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.4460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes4c11,744$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.062020%4 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd828…519ebacked Yes3c11,628$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.9790%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7d…7c8fbacked Yes4c11,567$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.7550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes4c11,000$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.322015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe248…f293backed Yes3c10,265$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe565…0401backed Yes6c10,065$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.2250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c21…d6bfbacked Yes5c10,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501625%4 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e0…4655backed Yes5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9885…210ebacked Yes6c9,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.871513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes4c8,407$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.274542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ad…0ca3backed Yes5c8,104$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4b1…50d9backed Yes4c7,992$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.8380%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c5a…3d4bbacked Yes6c7,925$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c6…9211backed Yes6c7,630$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.29714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-80.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…271cbacked Yes5c7,626$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.2160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes4c7,621$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.085530.9%17 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2228…7eafbacked Yes4c7,503$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes4c7,500$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.31637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd863…3a7fbacked Yes4c7,500$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x096a…3dacbacked Yes4c7,500$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.580%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dda…2839backed Yes7c7,480$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd28e…2f42backed Yes5c7,214$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.4550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes5c7,192$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.28120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5a…0743backed Yes6c7,151$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa09c…ed07backed Yes4c6,772$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30270%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8da…8966backed Yes5c6,766$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.73812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7831…3a88backed Yes4c6,661$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes2c6,652$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.316725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes3c6,345$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.18140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.