TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,963,826
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,565,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,963,826 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x684b…0601backed Yes0c1,399,997$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4002045%9 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes0c1,260,999$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6623212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes0c1,085,347$4,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,126.72287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7079…910bbacked Yes0c925,585$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c517,508$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.82230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7899…af3abacked Yes0c244,940$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.8260%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe083…fcb5backed Yes0c218,032$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c175,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5402847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c150,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick5cpaid+411%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…844fbacked Yes1c147,574$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c125,558$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.126021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdba6…0218backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb532…916bbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes0c97,537$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.223321.2%7 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca1…d452backed Yes1c93,886$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85fe…dedfbacked Yes0c90,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8140…07d1backed Yes0c85,089$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c81,072$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.652400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1672…d232backed Yes0c79,150$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd108…3b67backed Yes0c73,150$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1189…a9e0backed Yes0c71,936$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb38c…be8fbacked Yes1c71,044$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d4…6183backed Yes1c68,975$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x112d…68f0backed Yes0c67,200$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad06…ab6ebacked Yes1c63,768$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8af5…0e53backed Yes1c63,768$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3358…617fbacked Yes1c63,168$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c1…97d9backed Yes1c63,168$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1c9…258ebacked Yes1c62,504$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb61…4eb2backed Yes1c61,096$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285b…7836backed Yes1c60,835$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x697c…4f2abacked Yes1c59,074$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bdc…d95ebacked Yes0c59,000$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-64.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ff3…b655backed Yes1c58,597$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…ebdebacked Yes1c57,052$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cab…2240backed Yes0c55,401$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x196d…f82cbacked Yes0c55,401$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3534…77fcbacked Yes0c55,401$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b9…6c67backed Yes1c55,395$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c98…4bd9backed Yes1c55,395$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb25…c04fbacked Yes1c55,285$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339d…0d97backed Yes0c55,165$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0211…67ecbacked Yes0c55,165$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d96…7374backed Yes1c54,553$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8bd…ecb6backed Yes1c54,553$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6dc…58f7backed Yes1c53,283$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dda…a8b4backed Yes1c53,283$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd41f…989dbacked Yes1c53,283$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ec…7718backed Yes1c53,283$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d9…417dbacked Yes0c53,000$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda81…cdb5backed Yes1c52,531$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe767…5ae2backed Yes0c52,333$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b0e…5ffabacked Yes1c51,930$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a28…e629backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4116…2487backed Yes1c49,334$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44b8…22aebacked Yes1c49,334$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54c4…f636backed Yes1c48,734$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd544…4266backed Yes1c47,258$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa724…a9bbbacked Yes0c46,667$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c1a…ac56backed Yes1c46,271$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x760b…26ecbacked Yes0c46,025$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.12810.7%3 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a08…0db2backed Yes0c43,530$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.09263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-90.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4088…99dbbacked Yes1c42,478$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb3…92cfbacked Yes1c42,478$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b2f…e916backed Yes1c42,372$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ee6…28a0backed Yes1c40,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6b2…d045backed Yes0c40,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef36…3e1dbacked Yes1c36,906$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0d2…bce4backed Yes1c36,687$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes0c36,478$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.53130%0 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9bb…14b3backed Yes1c34,439$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x210a…3444backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb5…4ed5backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe026…2c54backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e6…0207backed Yes0c32,107$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc26e…5366backed Yes0c30,035$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5431…47e1backed Yes1c26,298$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.381241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+65.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a37…91aabacked Yes0c25,500$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b38…8a6dbacked Yes0c25,309$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea3…3027backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13f1…adaebacked Yes0c24,816$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8d…fea7backed Yes0c24,005$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes0c23,420$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502516%4 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes0c21,962$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.243514.3%5 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f90…9139backed Yes0c21,350$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17aa…63c1backed Yes0c20,500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f9…8fbdbacked Yes0c20,031$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0004…11bfbacked Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8af6…3b0cbacked Yes0c19,404$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcf9…acbfbacked Yes0c18,960$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x541e…e793backed Yes0c18,100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9598…255cbacked Yes0c17,155$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be9…e834backed Yes0c17,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-79.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90cb…6ce1backed Yes0c16,525$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.05100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes0c15,531$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9916725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e27…3052backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3017…d490backed Yes1c15,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.