Champions League · resolved market
Will Sporting CP beat PSV?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfabaa875c87f4c5adf40697a666c2ed3bf35c848a234fef8df2fec0491fd3589
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 37c | 3,174$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.88 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 58c | 2,650$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.99 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 39c | 2,550$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 62c | 1,750$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.49 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 42c | 1,382$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.44 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 63c | 999.47$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.8 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…6828backed Yes | 43c | 935.35$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 39c | 838.1$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.96 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…106dbacked Yes | 37c | 718.07$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.69 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 62c | 629.99$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.69 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 2c | 627.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 6c | 514.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 63c | 444$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.28 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 43c | 440.39$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.75 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 45c | 400.02$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.01 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…ac1cbacked Yes | 41c | 297.32$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 59c | 222$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4450…baffbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…4ce7backed No | 62c | 188.06$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…5dabbacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…e110backed Yes | 41c | 103.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ef…a77cbacked No | 58c | 97.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…c75fbacked Yes | 45c | 69.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…bad2backed Yes | 39c | 59.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a8…3719backed No | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…60e7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Yes | 35c | 38.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x679a…aa00backed No | 58c | 33.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2b…d259backed Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b73…c1acbacked No | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting CP beat PSV?this page
- Will PSV beat Sporting CP?No won
- Will the match between PSV and Sporting CP end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.