TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,580
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,317

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,580 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5095…c97cbacked No48c8,111$3,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,206.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No31c6,811$2,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,714.748220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes67c5,155$3,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,432.33837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No62c4,449$2,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.722133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-49.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes4c3,375$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.232839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-32.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes10c3,327$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.58119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No26c2,243$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.683426.5%9 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+72.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No34c2,131$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.552245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x777e…2836backed Yes66c1,704$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…2290backed Yes7c1,668$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No27c1,246$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.488543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes62c1,232$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.982733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee6e…807cbacked Yes57c1,036$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.21450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c1,014$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6257426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d92…da5bbacked No48c913.53$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb011…2d13backed Yes75c905.7$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.73540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Yes69c850$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes70c763.48$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-59.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x128a…f49ebacked Yes68c761.46$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe6b…f255backed Yes17c736.69$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.14560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ba3…83debacked Yes75c666.67$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked No38c581.45$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2420…ce7fbacked No61c572.66$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes4c546.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c6…3654backed Yes3c529.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes36c508.23$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.932934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc462…5e7abacked Yes4c440.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x050e…bf57backed No48c420$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01d6…978ebacked Yes5c414.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-69.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa099…d81fbacked No47c409.86$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.233441.2%14 W · 20 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8679…333bbacked Yes61c404.8$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7de5…9c80backed No32c403.84$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+213.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No33c401.47$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.853145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes4c353.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes63c352$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed Yes57c346.84$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.32366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bff…c76abacked No30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No36c333$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.232512%3 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-76.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked No39c329.01$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.32757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc52f…4ab8backed Yes72c305.56$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes58c300$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1743429.4%10 W · 24 L-7.2wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-53.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes12c291$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfea6…a363backed Yes6c282.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes71c281.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3af0…2f0bbacked No39c256.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.622100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+120.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No29c250.55$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.89977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+54.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes65c250$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.59725.8%25 W · 72 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b56…192bbacked Yes6c249.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ff…8750backed Yes8c247.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6045…bec8backed Yes6c245.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No44c240.74$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9672935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…a81cbacked No22c227.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+197.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes65c206.56$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.71346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e6…8fe7backed No26c197.64$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+278.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c1…b7d6backed Yes8c193.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No26c163.51$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1213455.9%19 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+71.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4e09…da86backed No31c161$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes75c160$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.24751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42aa…3cf1backed Yes71c155.55$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0615…5c47backed Yes65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x930c…f632backed Yes71c150$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.530%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked No29c150$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+65.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x535f…5ce5backed No45c147.59$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc5…61fdbacked No35c141.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+182.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41df…21e9backed No36c138.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+176.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes66c132.22$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes65c126.15$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c89…9fa4backed Yes8c125.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7efd…c159backed No44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a28…3ca9backed No39c111.97$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+155%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes55c110$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.951560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe999…6f77backed Yes76c102$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.52812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-82.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e9a…8d22backed No50c100.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…711bbacked Yes69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a3…db6ebacked No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+74.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5574…6424backed Yes80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e3f…92aebacked No34c99.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+114%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Yes16c99.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8260%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd934…b664backed No32c96.88$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.88742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf079…2ba6backed No38c95.57$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+160%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…1e98backed Yes72c94.55$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.52366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd6c…68d9backed No39c89.29$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.292236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78bd…357dbacked No37c84.04$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+173.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No41c82.74$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f2…08fabacked No31c80.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc3a…d6fdbacked No25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x534f…616abacked Yes62c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b78…a88abacked No45c77.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.28520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-55.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9570…83a2backed No36c75.84$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+176%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes62c75.43$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fd0…09d3backed Yes71c70.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc385…5039backed No28c69.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5521…5d75backed No37c67.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe855…c2d6backed No30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes65c65.87$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.662548%12 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f0…1bb1backed No80c62.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…c05cbacked No32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4616…e881backed No36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.56944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.