Champions League · resolved market
Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcde8e68786cf59952cfeea7923bed1ec65029019f934b817c32ea856fc09a77f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 31c | 10,072$3,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,083.94 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 69c | 4,850$3,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504.38 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 70c | 2,754$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.6 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 69c | 1,800$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.16 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 71c | 1,301$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.37 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…bc8ebacked Yes | 28c | 960.38$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…60e1backed No | 72c | 960.38$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…37f8backed Yes | 29c | 696.55$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…b9cfbacked Yes | 34c | 615.79$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 66c | 607.46$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.16 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4d…c22cbacked No | 73c | 347.26$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…7925backed No | 73c | 346.58$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 29c | 170.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…48f7backed Yes | 30c | 142.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…2853backed No | 72c | 140.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…c75fbacked Yes | 32c | 133.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7d…96a1backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…0d3abacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…60e7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 28c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.27per pick | 62cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end in a draw?this page
- Will Juventus beat RB Leipzig?Yes won
- Will RB Leipzig beat Juventus?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.