Champions League · resolved market
Will Juventus beat RB Leipzig?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fed0534a0ad74a55ac9b5dbb9521a3744c975fada75b2f6d49d1b8e54dcdd34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 25c | 4,528$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.76 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 68c | 2,036$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.61 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…24abbacked Yes | 32c | 1,544$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 67c | 1,088$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.33 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 67c | 629.83$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.68 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked Yes | 32c | 600$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 33c | 490.65$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.63 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…b9cfbacked Yes | 31c | 433$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…2193backed Yes | 33c | 375.06$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad51…55abbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…5dabbacked No | 68c | 297.06$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 33c | 233.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…2504backed Yes | 33c | 212.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847f…08a5backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +172.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a7…142cbacked Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…b6f9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe1…cf7abacked Yes | 33c | 84.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…ec52backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd086…35f0backed Yes | 33c | 66.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6e…db70backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca7…83e3backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…e71fbacked Yes | 32c | 59.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +122%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed No | 69c | 53.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…c3cbbacked Yes | 32c | 43.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 30c | 35.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe232…9df9backed No | 69c | 35.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…a889backed No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…50d2backed No | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…83e5backed No | 72c | 27.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…8069backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed Yes | 74c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Juventus beat RB Leipzig?this page
- Will RB Leipzig beat Juventus?No won
- Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.