Champions League · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig beat Juventus?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bc1fd7b1880449bc1d9aa2f28ad3ae7ec4cc311d9e3479624a2932f319bb725
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked No | 61c | 2,377$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…7814backed Yes | 39c | 2,157$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 38c | 2,047$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.82 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 40c | 1,828$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.93 | 152 | 50.7%77 W · 75 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 61c | 1,582$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.44 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2b…839ebacked No | 63c | 1,270$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 61c | 1,246$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.84 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bf54backed No | 63c | 887.02$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked No | 61c | 639.12$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 52c | 560.33$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.25 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4e…c452backed Yes | 38c | 497$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 39c | 443.96$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.15 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked No | 62c | 416.08$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 61c | 299.99$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ae…d2d3backed Yes | 40c | 269.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…a81bbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked No | 46c | 220.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…8ef6backed Yes | 46c | 164$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked No | 62c | 159.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…a889backed Yes | 53c | 145.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…23cabacked No | 62c | 127.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…807abacked Yes | 39c | 127.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…42c1backed Yes | 71c | 70.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…d05ebacked Yes | 42c | 69.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…a058backed No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…feb8backed No | 60c | 61.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…fb4ebacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06b…57ccbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aff…c2c7backed No | 60c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2014…0e52backed No | 64c | 26.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf736…1406backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…df64backed No | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…93ccbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig beat Juventus?this page
- Will Juventus beat RB Leipzig?Yes won
- Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.